Investment Insights

• CUE · Cue Biopharma
  2026-02-05•Score: 10/10•by @execsum

  Cue Biopharma (CUE): My calculated “moonshot.” After its post-IPO crash, the company has right-sized, and is continuing to extend it’s runway through it’s clinical trial progress unlocking new payment milestones and partnerships. The small initial invest caps the downside risk, and if it goes right, the growth could be exponential.

• CVNA · Carvana
  2026-02-05•Score: 9/10•by @thebearcave

  Gotham City Research [published](https://x.com/GothamResearch/status/2016547974776861083?s=20) on **Carvana** (NYSE: CVNA — $87.3 billion), an online platform for buying and selling used cars. Gotham City alleged that Carvana’s “2023-2024 earnings are overstated by $1 billion+ and far more dependent on related parties than disclosed.” Gotham published the 2024 annual report for the related party, DriveTime, and alleged that money-losing related parties “fuel over 73% of Carvana’s EBITDA.”

• ETH · Ethereum
  2026-02-05•Score: 10/10•by @execsum

  Ethereum (ETH): Acquired near multi-year lows. Having witnessed real-world enterprise and DeFi innovation built on its rails during my consulting days, I see ETH not just as crypto, but as infrastructure. Target: $1,800–$2,500 by year-end; with a long-term bull case well into four figures.

• MO · Altria Group, Inc.
  2026-02-05•Score: 9/10•by @invariant

  Yes, more volume declines within the segment are to come. Legacy volumes will not be spared; however, rest assured that plenty of pricing will occur, as users switch to pouches. The trajectory of on! may not be as rosy as it once was, given new competition and increased promotion. However, Altria will surely apply pressure of its own with the recent authorization of on! Plus, which was fast-tracked following [last quarter’s note](https://invariant.substack.com/p/altria-drift), which stated: > _[on! Plus’s advanced launch](https://invariant.substack.com/p/defiance) was in defiance of the FDA, indicating a more aggressive approach by Altria to capitalize on the category’s growth. Whether the FDA takes action against this launch is as uncertain as whether Altria will roll the product out nationally in the near term. While Altria had initially stated that the product would be launched in a few select states, the product became readily available online on on!’s standalone website, with shipping available to the majority of states. It appears on its standalone website for on!, Altria has stopped selling on! Plus in the United States, indicating potential apprehension. Avoiding FDA hostility may be for the best in this instance, as one of the most significant recent developments is the FDA’s announced [pilot program](https://invariant.substack.com/p/under-pressure) to expedite PMTA reviews concerning pouches, which on! Plus is included. With the prospect of determinations being made by year-end, the US market could be shaken up significantly with on! Plus, European Velo Mini, and ZYN Ultra

• ENX · Euronext
  2026-02-05•Score: 10/10•by @marketsentiment

  But what is it about the exchange that makes it immune to the tempests of the market? * Think of the exchange as a ‘contra-index equity class’. If the index goes up, the constituent stocks thrive. If the index sinks, there’s market carnage. But the exchange is agnostic to these movements. It’s monetizing ‘activity’ instead of market optimism. Whether participants want to buy or sell stocks, the exchange pockets spreads and fees and also benefits from rising volatility and transaction volume during periods of market chaos. * Another advantage of exchanges is their inherent adaptability. Despite market carnage or disruptors in an industry, the exchange still stands to win because it’s not betting on any outcome. Indices continue to rotate, and markets continue to go through bear-and-bull cycles. But whatever happens, everyone is paying rent at the exchange — short sellers, hedgers, speculators, passive investors. * Exchanges can scale unencumbered once the infrastructure is in place. They do not require proportionally more capital to support larger trading volume. * In addition, exchanges are positioned to capture new assets, financial instruments, or vehicles as markets evolve. Whether it’s obscure asset classes like Bitcoin or orange juice futures, the exchange has everything to offer as long as you’re willing to trade on the asset. If a new financial product comes into existence tomorrow, the exchange will list it and retain the fees, irrespective of whether the product succeeds or becomes a credit default swap case study for the books. This leads to the more interesting question. **If exchanges profit from activity rather than market direction, should we expect them to outperform the very markets they host?** To test this hypothesis, we construct a **global portfolio of exchanges** and compare its performance to a portfolio of the indices they host. NASDAQ and Intercontinental Exchange operate the two largest stock exchanges in the US: the NASDAQ and the NYSE, respectively. Euronext operates the major stock exchanges in 8 European countries. Japan Exchange Group owns the Tokyo Stock Exchange. Likewise, each exchange in the portfolio operates the primary exchange in its respective country.

• UA · Under Armour, Inc.
  2026-02-05•Score: 7/10•by @yetanothervalueblog

  For minority shareholders, there is one other interesting angle worth considering. This was [mentioned towards the end of the Trata call](https://www.trytrata.com/transcripts/6CKP6pwjmsxhjQie7WvMdy), but there could be some logic to a take private at UA. Plank owns a big stake in the company, most companies don’t like to do turnarounds in public, and there’s a lot of private equity money out there. Could a take private happen here? Absolutely possible. In particular, I’d note Fairfax has a lot of financial resources and a history of taking businesses private, particularly when they like the management team ([they’re in the middle of a take private right now](https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/another-premium-proposed-take-private?utm_source=publication-search)[7](https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/fairfax-loves-under-armour-im-not#footnote-7-185370857)!). IDK how Fairfax feels about Kevin Plank, but he does kind of seem like the type of executive Prem likes / would back. Could Fairfax look to support a UA take private? Or could UA just run a process and have a private equity firm back a private? Either seems absolutely possible, and would likely result in a windfall for minority shareholders (a windfall that I think the take private sponsors would ultimately rue!).

• VRT · Vertiv Holdings
  2026-02-05•Score: 7/10•by @defiweekly

  * VRT: Vertiv Holdings. In order to run these GPUs, you need liquid cooling. Vertiv is the leader in this category.

• BE · Bloom Energy
  2026-02-05•Score: 7/10•by @defiweekly

  * Behind the Meter: Bloom Energy. This company produces Solide Oxide Fuel Cells (SOFC) which are capable of converting natural gas into electricity at the scale of operating a data center. While the stock has run up tremendously, the earnings and growth are nothing short of impressive.

• HOG · Harley-Davidson
  2026-02-05•Score: 9/10•by @moneyradar

  The stock is trading as a deep value play near its tangible asset value (~$19 per share), effectively pricing the declining but still cash-generative core motorcycle business at zero, making the downside risk highly limited.

• CSU · Constellation Software
  2026-02-05•Score: 7/10•by @hatedmoats

  The idea of “Hated Moats Portfolio” is as old as this whole newsletter and its point is simple - put our money where our mouth is and buy the companies we analyse and believe in long-term. Since we set the transparency to be our main pillar here, we decided to share this portfolio as a real one, and publish its performance in real time, with our real positions we’ve been getting into since July 2025. We increased our actual cash amount assigned to this portfolio to $100,000 and normalised it as a base for the start of Hated Moats, i.e. from July 28, 2025. In Q2, we added 8 new positions into the portfolio: Constellation Software, Salesforce, Duolingo, Meta Platforms, Nebius Group, Uber Technologies, Mo-Bruk and Wix. The position has overall 15 positions by now. We are happy about the new additions, perhaps with a little bit of doubt about Duolingo.

• STMN · UraniumX Discovery Corp. (formerly Stearman Resources)
  2026-02-05•Score: 10/10•by @juniorminingpro

  **UraniumX Discovery Corp. (formerly Stearman Resources)** **CSE: STMN** _33,000 hectares in the Athabasca Basin with the world’s most accomplished uranium discovery team_ Market cap: $15 million CAD A Uranium Dream Team with a robust treasury and an exceptional asset base. After recently raising $4.1 million, UraniumX has just announced _another_ $1.5 million private placement due to institutional demand, positioning the company with robust war chest to commence ambitious exploration campaigns focused on drilling Murphy Lake this Spring. Murphy Lake sits just 3km from IsoEnergy’s world-class Hurricane discovery - the highest grade uranium discovery in the world; 15km north of the Nova discovery, and 4km east of Cameco’s La Rocque Lake. The board is stacked with technical talent - unrivalled in the Athabasca Basin : Ken Wheatley (Exploration Director, 8 Athabasca discoveries including McArthur River and Cigar Lake), Dr. Yuanming Pan (Technical Advisor, leading academic authority on Athabasca unconformity systems), Matthew Schwab (Director, Arrow discovery team, Roughrider sale for $654M), and Vincent Martin (Strategic Advisor, former Orano Canada CEO with 37 years global uranium operations). At $0.22/share after 45 days of consolidation with this caliber of team directing systematic expansion drilling across 33,000 hectares, and a robust cash position, this represents my highest conviction uranium play heading into Spring 2026 catalysts.

• FOMO · Formation Metals Inc.
  2026-02-05•Score: 10/10•by @juniorminingpro

  **Formation Metals Inc.** **TSXV: FOMO | OTCQB: FOMTF** _30,000m drill program expanding 871,000 oz historical resource in the Abitibi_ Market cap: $38 million CAD Shares of FOMO took a hit with the rest of the gold market on Friday, however the thesis remains stronger than every. FOMO acquired a 4,400-hectare Abitibi gold project with an 871,000 oz historical resource during the 2024 bear market. With gold recently skyrocketing past $5,000, the entire story must be re-rated as every ounce in the ground - historical, and those to yet be discovered, are now exponentially more valuable than when the company picked up the asset. Historic work (over 50,000M of drilling) has already outlined ~871,000 oz (non-43-101) across the A, East, RJ‑East and Central zones plus the high‑grade RJ zone, yet only about 35% of the A Zone strike has ever been drilled, _**leaving more than 3.1 km of fully permitted ground in front of the rigs.**_ The company just announced their maiden NI 43-101 resource estimate following Phase 1 completion. With exceptional near-surface hit rates (10 of 13 holes) and six standout holes showing 100+ meter intervals, they are now running TWO drill rigs to accelerate the discovery timeline. With $12.3M in treasury, zero debt, and a fully-funded 30,000m program designed to triple the resource base, management is executing a clear path to modern compliance and potential major producer takeover. In the strongest gold bull market in history, this remains one of 2026’s most mispriced growth plays.

• CRM · Salesforce
  2026-02-05•Score: 7/10•by @hatedmoats

  The idea of “Hated Moats Portfolio” is as old as this whole newsletter and its point is simple - put our money where our mouth is and buy the companies we analyse and believe in long-term. Since we set the transparency to be our main pillar here, we decided to share this portfolio as a real one, and publish its performance in real time, with our real positions we’ve been getting into since July 2025. We increased our actual cash amount assigned to this portfolio to $100,000 and normalised it as a base for the start of Hated Moats, i.e. from July 28, 2025. In Q2, we added 8 new positions into the portfolio: Constellation Software, Salesforce, Duolingo, Meta Platforms, Nebius Group, Uber Technologies, Mo-Bruk and Wix. The position has overall 15 positions by now. We are happy about the new additions, perhaps with a little bit of doubt about Duolingo.

• N/A · Intercontinental Debt (via Fundora)
  2026-02-05•Score: 10/10•by @moneyradar

  Notre partenaire Fundora brise les barrières en rendant la dette privée accessible dès 1 000 euros grâce à la mutualisation des tickets. Vous investissez dans les mêmes conditions que les institutionnels, sans passer par des montages complexes ou des structures opaques. Même cadre, même discipline, même niveau d’exigence. Intercontinental Debt, la stratégie que propose Fundora, est une stratégie éprouvée qui tourne depuis plusieurs années avec des résultats vérifiables. Zéro défaut depuis 2020. La mécanique est rigoureuse : uniquement de la dette senior sécurisée accordée à des entreprises profitables, avec des garanties réelles systématiques et une diversification internationale maîtrisée sur trois continents (Afrique, Asie, Amérique latine). Les secteurs financés sont porteurs : finance digitale, énergie distribuée, mobilité, infrastructures climatiques. Chaque prêt est amortissable et sur-collatéralisé à hauteur de 15% à 50%. Cette sur-garantie crée un matelas de sécurité qui protège votre capital même si la valorisation des actifs baisse. C’est cette discipline de fer qui permet de maintenir des rendements stables à deux chiffres sans prendre de risques démesurés. Les revenus sont distribués trimestriellement, pas dans dix ans quand le fonds se termine. Vous touchez régulièrement les coupons de vos prêts au fur et à mesure des remboursements. Et contrairement au private equity où votre argent est bloqué 7 à 10 ans, la liquidité est pensée différemment avec des prêts amortissables qui génèrent du cash dès les premiers trimestres. Dans le cas de la stratégie Intercontinental Debt, en cas de problème, vous êtes remboursé en premier, avant tous les autres. Et votre prêt est garanti par des actifs réels de l’entreprise valorisés entre 115% et 150% du montant prêté. Si vous prêtez 100, vos garanties valent 115 à 150. Les chiffres parlent d’eux-mêmes depuis 2020 : 0% de taux de défaut pour les créanciers seniors, des rendements nets entre 10,7% et 11,7% par an, et des revenus distribués chaque trimestre. Pas de montagnes russes, pas de nuits blanches à surveiller les cours. Juste une mécanique stable qui tourne depuis des années.

• KCLI · American Critical Minerals Corp.
  2026-02-05•Score: 10/10•by @juniorminingpro

  **American Critical Minerals Corp.** **TSXV: KCLI | OTC: [not yet listed]** _Triple critical mineral exposure in Utah’s proven Paradox Basin with Q1 2026 drilling_ Market cap: ~$19.5 million CAD America imports over 90% of their potash from Canada. The company targets large scale, high grade potash, lithium AND bromine from the same brine system in Utah’s Paradox Basin, with three drill holes fully permitted and bonded on SITLA leases, plus four authorized holes on BLM leases awaiting final bonding. KCLI recently raised oversubscribed $7.451 million in institutional-led financings and has a board of directors stacked with veteran talent in developing and managing brine deposits: Dean Pekeski with 33 years mining sector experience including 17+ years potash focus, who led Western Potash’s Milestone project and serves as CEO of Peak Minerals developing Utah’s Sevier Playa SOP project; and Kenneth Taylor, an expert in salt minerals and evaporite deposits; was with Intrepid Potash Inc. for 12 years including as part of senior management, latterly as vice-president of business development. The upcoming maiden drill program is designed to validate historic data and position for maiden resource estimates and PFS/PEA across all three critical minerals. With Q1 2026 mobilization targeted, this offers early-stage exposure to domestic supply chain independence in a district validated by neighbor Anson Resources’ 1.5M tonne lithium resource (and advanced DLE pilots being funded by South Korean giant POSCO) and Intrepid Potash’s legacy potash mine, 20 miles away, with 50+ years of production.

• WIX · Wix
  2026-02-05•Score: 7/10•by @hatedmoats

  The idea of “Hated Moats Portfolio” is as old as this whole newsletter and its point is simple - put our money where our mouth is and buy the companies we analyse and believe in long-term. Since we set the transparency to be our main pillar here, we decided to share this portfolio as a real one, and publish its performance in real time, with our real positions we’ve been getting into since July 2025. We increased our actual cash amount assigned to this portfolio to $100,000 and normalised it as a base for the start of Hated Moats, i.e. from July 28, 2025. In Q2, we added 8 new positions into the portfolio: Constellation Software, Salesforce, Duolingo, Meta Platforms, Nebius Group, Uber Technologies, Mo-Bruk and Wix. The position has overall 15 positions by now. We are happy about the new additions, perhaps with a little bit of doubt about Duolingo.

• EVS · EVS Broadcast
  2026-02-05•Score: 10/10•by @heavymoatinvestments

  EVS Broadcast has been a great success right after I started my position and has done nothing since then. Right now it is the third smallest position in my portfolio at 6.7% weight and I haven’t build a very high conviction in my year of ownership. That means it’s time to revisit the thesis, if it’s going to plan, what my return expectations are and what could impact the sentiment of the stock. As a Belgian company, EVS does not report quarterly results, rather a H1 and H2 full update and revenue updates in Q1 and Q3. The order book was the highlight with 14% normalized growth (the BER segment of EVS serves mega events like the Olympics and football world cup, so it’s on a bi-annual cycle), showing large contract wins including the football world cup and Olympics for 2026. Revenue declined 6% because of some delayed H1 orders, driven by the Trump tariff mania in Q2 and growing managed projects (large projects with milestone recognition payments). EBIT got crushed -38% due to the delayed revenues, which shows the operating leverage in a business with very high R&D investment for its size. Without the delayed revenue, EBIT would still have been down 9%. EVS maintained its outlook and pointed towards the lower end of the range (195-210 million €) and confirms the 35-43 million € EBIT range. We should note that there is a pretty wide 20% range between EBIT targets, showing how much margins fluctuate based on revenues and reinvestment in this business. EVS also acquired two companies in 2025, Telemetrics for $13 million and XD Motion for around 3 million €, creating a premium Media Production Robotics division. Those businesses are expected to contribute around 15 million € or so in revenues. M&A was always part of the strategy to reach the 350 million € revenue target for 2030. To achieve this goal EVS will need to compound revenue at over 10% across its cycles (remember, even years are typically around 15 million € high from BER). As we established, EVS is reliant on large customers running big events. These customers value the decades of track record of flawless execution. But this really is only applicable to large scale productions where a few seconds of outage are already a catastrophe.

• VOW · Volkswagen
  2026-02-05•Score: 9/10•by @moneyradar

  Face à ces difficultés, la direction a annoncé un plan d’économies ambitieux visant 1,5 milliard d’euros de réduction de coûts d’ici 2026. Ce plan s’accompagne d’une diminution de la capacité de production de 760 000 unités et d’une réduction de 35 000 emplois. L’objectif est de redresser la marge bénéficiaire opérationnelle, qui devrait passer de 3% en 2025 à 5,4% en 2030. Pour y parvenir, Volkswagen mise sur le lancement de cinq nouveaux véhicules électriques d’entrée de gamme en Europe en 2026 et de quinze nouveaux modèles thermiques développés localement en Chine pour mieux répondre aux attentes du marché local. Les objectifs de cours oscillent entre 135 et 160 € par action, ce qui représente un potentiel de hausse de 25 à 35% par rapport aux niveaux actuels. Cette opportunité s’appuie sur une valorisation particulièrement attractive : le ratio cours/bénéfice anticipé pour 2026 se situe à 4,8 fois, bien en-dessous de la moyenne historique sur dix ans de 5,9 fois. De plus, le rendement du dividende projeté à 6,2% en 2026 et 7,7% en 2027 dépasse largement la moyenne historique de 4,5%, ce qui suggère que le marché sous-évalue actuellement les perspectives de redressement de l’entreprise. L’ouverture du marché indien, avec la baisse progressive des tarifs douaniers de 110% à 10%, constitue une opportunité majeure pour compenser ces difficultés, mais elle ne se concrétisera que sur le moyen terme. L’action convient donc aux investisseurs patients capables de supporter les fluctuations à court terme pour capter le potentiel de redressement à horizon 2027-2030.

• AUME · Auriginal Mining Corp. (formerly Kintavar Exploration)
  2026-02-05•Score: 10/10•by @juniorminingpro

  **Auriginal Mining Corp. (formerly Kintavar Exploration)** **TSXV: AUME** _Reinterpreting 58,000m of historic drilling with modern VMS techniques in Quebec’s Chibougamau district_ Market cap: ~$21.1 million Following the take over of Auriginal Mining by the Ore Group and veteran mining and exploration operator Stephen Stewart, the rebranding from Kintavar to Auriginal Mining signalled a fundamental shift in this story. CEO Peter Cashin originally drilled AUME’s flagship Roger project in 1985 and built the underground ramp. Now he’s returned, 40 years later, with modern VMS (volcanogenic massive sulfide) techniques to unlock what 1980s operators missed. Peter recently stated in an interview the company believes, based on regional rock value, they could be sitting on up to $2 billion of in situ value. Recent downhole geophysics identified 500 siemens conductors plus graphite mineralization confirming VMS stratigraphy rather than the porphyry model previous operators chased. The company is reinterpreting 58,000 meters of historical drilling that includes intersections of 7.0% zinc, 3.2% copper, 27 g/t gold, and 124 g/t silver. Located in Quebec’s Chibougamau district with geological analogies to Agnico Eagle’s LaRonde mine, Roger sits along a 1.8km strike length with targets positioned 100-300m below previously drilled high-grade zones. With C$8.5M in the treasury funding an ongoing January-February 2026 drill program designed to test the VMS model at depth, backed by Stephen Stewart’s Ore Group, Cashin’s intimate project knowledge creates a compelling rediscovery opportunity the market is currently pricing around C$0.08. Kicker: The company just announced the commencement of diamond drilling at its other asset - the Anik joint venture with gold giant Iamgold, to test new high-priority gold targets. The Anik property in immediately adjacent to the northern boundary of Iamgold’s prolific Nelligan gold project, 40 kilometres southwest of Chapais, Que.

• EVC · Entravision
  2026-02-05•Score: 10/10•by @themikrokap

  As paid subscribers already know, Smadex matters so much because the risk-reward at $3.17 is very different from what it was when I first wrote it up at $1.93. That’s not because I think $EVC has become a pure Smadex bet, or that a slowdown in Smadex growth would kill the thesis. But Smadex has clearly become a much more important driver of upside from here than it was in the past, when it was growing more slowly, was less profitable, and made up a smaller share of the overall business. And even though Smadex and the broader AdTech segment now make up more than 63% of EVC’s revenue in the most recent quarter—and likely around 55% for the full FY 2025—with revenue growing 104% and EBIT up 378% before operating leverage has fully kicked in, I still think it is the variable of the thesis that the market underappreciates the most. growth since Entravision split its segments into Media and AdTech After all, AdTech’s EBIT for 2025 should come in at more than $25M, with a current run-rate closer to $40M, while $EVC’s entire enterprise value is still only around $440M. And what’s left isn’t worthless, but a highly FCF-generative broadcasting business focused on a politically important Spanish-language audience, along with the most valuable spectrum assets relative to EV among publicly traded traditional media companies I’ve looked at. We covered the current state of both on the call as well.

• Nebius Group · Nebius Group
  2026-02-05•Score: 7/10•by @hatedmoats

  The idea of “Hated Moats Portfolio” is as old as this whole newsletter and its point is simple - put our money where our mouth is and buy the companies we analyse and believe in long-term. Since we set the transparency to be our main pillar here, we decided to share this portfolio as a real one, and publish its performance in real time, with our real positions we’ve been getting into since July 2025. We increased our actual cash amount assigned to this portfolio to $100,000 and normalised it as a base for the start of Hated Moats, i.e. from July 28, 2025. In Q2, we added 8 new positions into the portfolio: Constellation Software, Salesforce, Duolingo, Meta Platforms, Nebius Group, Uber Technologies, Mo-Bruk and Wix. The position has overall 15 positions by now. We are happy about the new additions, perhaps with a little bit of doubt about Duolingo.

• HOG · Harley-Davidson
  2026-02-05•Score: 9/10•by @moneyradar

  Les chiffres récents de Harley-Davidson illustrent bien le déclin de l’entreprise. Le chiffre d’affaires devrait passer de 5,84 milliards de dollars en 2023 à environ 3,75 milliards en 2026, soit une chute de 35% en trois ans. Le bénéfice par action, qui avait atteint 4,96$ en 2022, devrait tomber à 2,09$ cette année. Malgré cette contraction, l’entreprise reste profitable. Harley a fait le ménage : réduction des coûts, désendettement progressif, et surtout un accord stratégique majeur signé en juillet 2025 avec KKR et PIMCO. Ce deal a permis de céder 9,8% de HDFS et plus de 5 milliards de dollars de créances clients, libérant 1,25 milliard de dollars de trésorerie disponible et allégeant considérablement les besoins en capital du groupe. En analysant le bilan pour ne garder que les actifs tangibles (actifs courants et créances, moins la dette), la valeur par action ressort à près de 19. Autrement dit, au cours actuel de 19,56, on paie l’activité moto pour quasiment rien. Le cash-flow libre attendu dépasse les 400 millions de dollars en 2026, ce qui donne une valorisation ridiculement basse pour une entreprise qui génère encore du cash. L’action Harley-Davidson divise profondément. D’un côté, les fondamentaux restent inquiétants : déclin des ventes, clientèle vieillissante, perte de parts de marché face aux japonais et à Indian (Polaris), et impact des tarifs douaniers sur l’international. L’ancien PDG a laissé un héritage compliqué : dealers mécontents, stocks excédentaires, et une stratégie de travail à distance qui a nui à la cohésion de l’entreprise. De l’autre côté, la valorisation actuelle semble intégrer le pire scénario possible. Avec un programme de rachat d’actions de 200 millions de dollars en cours et une base d’actifs solide, le risque de perte semble limité. Certains analystes visent un objectif de cours à 30$, soit 50% de hausse. **Le verdict** : Un pari “value” pour investisseurs patients. La baisse semble limitée par la valeur des actifs, mais le catalyseur de hausse n’est pas encore visible. À surveiller avec les résultats du 10 février.

• UI · Ubiquiti
  2026-02-05•Score: 9/10•by @thebearcave

  Hunterbrook Media [published](https://x.com/hntrbrkmedia/status/2016120041691914580?s=20) on **Ubiquiti** (NYSE: UI — $33.4 billion), a Wi-Fi router company. Hunterbrook alleged that “[Ubiquiti’s] networking gear is powering Russian battlefield communications in Ukraine” and found that “Ubiquiti networking equipment is so essential to Russia’s war effort that vendors selling Ubiquiti devices sent us letters they said were from the Russian military and its supporters thanking them.” Hunterbrook also posed as a Russian buyer and found that Ubiquiti distributors were willing to ship Ubiquiti products to Russia, in violation of sanctions. In 2014, Ubiquiti agreed to settle charges of violating U.S. sanctions for allowing its products to be sold in Iran.

• META · Meta Platforms
  2026-02-05•Score: 7/10•by @hatedmoats

  The idea of “Hated Moats Portfolio” is as old as this whole newsletter and its point is simple - put our money where our mouth is and buy the companies we analyse and believe in long-term. Since we set the transparency to be our main pillar here, we decided to share this portfolio as a real one, and publish its performance in real time, with our real positions we’ve been getting into since July 2025. We increased our actual cash amount assigned to this portfolio to $100,000 and normalised it as a base for the start of Hated Moats, i.e. from July 28, 2025. In Q2, we added 8 new positions into the portfolio: Constellation Software, Salesforce, Duolingo, Meta Platforms, Nebius Group, Uber Technologies, Mo-Bruk and Wix. The position has overall 15 positions by now. We are happy about the new additions, perhaps with a little bit of doubt about Duolingo.

• NVTS · Navitas
  2026-02-05•Score: 10/10•by @execsum

  Navitas (NVTS): A strategic satellite play, supplying semiconductors to NVIDIA and Dell. Target: $12 by EOY; $100 in a semiconductor supercycle.

• MDB · MongoDB
  2026-02-05•Score: 10/10•by @execsum

  MongoDB (MDB): Trading at $190 is a stark anomaly for a category leader in NoSQL databases with a strong and seasoned management team, which have largely go unchanged. Historically valued between $300–$600, this feels like a temporary misread.

• STX · Seagate
  2026-02-05•Score: 9/10•by @defiweekly

  Other mentions: Seagate and Western Digital. While not being memory, they’re storage which is also in a huge shortage as the amount of data generated explodes.

• REZI · Resideo Technologies
  2026-02-05•Score: 8/10•by @thebearcave

  Spruce Point Capital [published](https://www.sprucepointcap.com/research/resideo-technologies-inc) on **Resideo Technologies** (NYSE: REZI — $5.13 billion), a home security solutions company. Spruce Point raised concerns about the company’s accounting and said its plan to split into two separate publicly traded companies fails to address “weakening competitive positioning [and] diminished growth vectors.”

• CRDO · Credo Technology Group
  2026-02-05•Score: 7/10•by @defiweekly

  * CRDO: They make special connectivity cables that every data center needs to run. They can support about 100GB/s through their Active Electric Cable technoloy.

• XAG · Silver (Commodity)
  2026-02-05•Score: 10/10•by @greyrabbitfinance

  Silver enters 2026 with the strongest structural foundation in decades. Five consecutive years of global supply deficits, surging industrial demand, and tightening inventories have pushed the market **full steam ahead into scarcity**. Solar alone now consumes **more silver than global mines produce**. India is preparing to re-monetize silver. Samsung’s solid-state battery breakthrough requires **~1kg of silver per cell**. And corporations are quietly locking in long-term supply before the shortage becomes public. Meanwhile retail remains absent: * ETF flows flat * Futures positioning muted * Western portfolios barely exposed This is not a hype cycle. This is a **parabolic setup** built on physical constraints… _before_ the crowd arrives. Our analysis shows the same structure repeating across all anchor timeframes:**acceleration, thin clouds, vertical Tenkan, steep Kijun, and multiple price-time convergence zones into 2026.** > And the final confirmation? > > The **gold-to-silver ratio is breaking down**… historically the trigger for every major silver outperformance cycle. When structural deficits meet monetary easing and the GSR rolls over, price doesn’t trend…**it revalues parabolically.** [...] Across all high timeframes, Silver’s structure is identical to every prior pre-parabolic setup. Silver has now transitioned from expansion to acceleration… the phase where parabolic curvature begins. The trigger? **A +315% nine-month run**, historically marking the exact point where: * buying accelerates * pullbacks shorten * volatility compresses * monthly candles expand This occurred in: * 1979 * 2004–2011 * 2020 * and now again in **2025** Across the 3M, 1M, and 1W charts, Ichimoku confirms: * **Chikou in free air** * **Razor-thin forward cloud** * **Steepening Kijun** * **Vertical Tenkan** * **Higher lows forming faster** This is not a blow-off top. This is the ignition phase of a parabola.

• Mo-Bruk · Mo-Bruk
  2026-02-05•Score: 7/10•by @hatedmoats

  The idea of “Hated Moats Portfolio” is as old as this whole newsletter and its point is simple - put our money where our mouth is and buy the companies we analyse and believe in long-term. Since we set the transparency to be our main pillar here, we decided to share this portfolio as a real one, and publish its performance in real time, with our real positions we’ve been getting into since July 2025. We increased our actual cash amount assigned to this portfolio to $100,000 and normalised it as a base for the start of Hated Moats, i.e. from July 28, 2025. In Q2, we added 8 new positions into the portfolio: Constellation Software, Salesforce, Duolingo, Meta Platforms, Nebius Group, Uber Technologies, Mo-Bruk and Wix. The position has overall 15 positions by now. We are happy about the new additions, perhaps with a little bit of doubt about Duolingo.

• KLDC · Kirkland Lake Discoveries Corp.
  2026-02-05•Score: 10/10•by @juniorminingpro

  **Kirkland Lake Discoveries Corp.** **TSXV: KLDC | OTC: KLKLF** _40,000-hectare land consolidation in Ontario’s legendary Kirkland Lake gold camp with drills turning_ Market cap: ~$40 million CAD KLDC recently raised an oversubscribed $12.72 million private placement led by mining finance legends Eric Sprott and Rob McEwen, and commenced their fully-funded 25,000m drill program on November 21st. The company confirmed dual mineralizing systems across their district-scale (40,000 hectares) land package located in the heart of the Kirkland Lake gold camp: a copper-rich massive sulphide (CRMS) system and an intrusion-related gold system (IRGS), significantly enhancing discovery potential in geology that created giants like Horne (53.7Mt), LaRonde (18.9Mt), and Sigma-Lamaque (35.6Mt). Management strengthened the technical team with VP Exploration Ben Cleland and Technical Adviser Dr. Jean-Francois Montreuil, with a second rig planned for January 2026. At $40.3M market cap for prime Abitibi real estate with institutional backing and drills turning, this is positioned for significant newsflow through 2026.

• TSLA · Tesla
  2026-02-05•Score: 10/10•by @execsum

  Tesla (TSLA): At $300, the market seems to ignore the imminent monetisation of Full Self-Driving, Optimus robotics, and potential synergies with xAI. Don’t bet against Elon’s track record of delivering against his ambitious targets. Target: $440 by year-end; $600+ if execution accelerates.

• AAL · Anglo American
  2026-02-05•Score: 8/10•by @thisisnotinvestmentadvice

  Since we originally wrote this post, De Beers, the South African based mining company that has dominated the market for natural diamonds has been put on the market by Anglo American, with Botswana, who own 15% a likely buyer of a larger stake. However, despite a book value of around $5bn, most analysts think that they would be lucky to get half that. Moreover, with revenue down 44% in Q1 and inventory of around $2bn (i.e. unsold stock in a market that doesn’t seem to want the product), Anglo American is looking rather like Morton Plant and his wife’s string of pearls.

• SIDU · Sidus Space
  2026-02-05•Score: 9/10•by @thebearcave

  Fugazi Research [published](https://www.fugaziresearch.com/p/the-black-hole-at-sidu-where-massive) on **Sidus Space** (NASDAQ: SIDU — $183 million), a “zero-profit satellite company in which the CEO is the landlord, lender, supplier, main shareholder, and main customer.”

• DUOL · Duolingo
  2026-02-05•Score: 7/10•by @hatedmoats

  The idea of “Hated Moats Portfolio” is as old as this whole newsletter and its point is simple - put our money where our mouth is and buy the companies we analyse and believe in long-term. Since we set the transparency to be our main pillar here, we decided to share this portfolio as a real one, and publish its performance in real time, with our real positions we’ve been getting into since July 2025. We increased our actual cash amount assigned to this portfolio to $100,000 and normalised it as a base for the start of Hated Moats, i.e. from July 28, 2025. In Q2, we added 8 new positions into the portfolio: Constellation Software, Salesforce, Duolingo, Meta Platforms, Nebius Group, Uber Technologies, Mo-Bruk and Wix. The position has overall 15 positions by now. We are happy about the new additions, perhaps with a little bit of doubt about Duolingo.

• SALT · Atlas Salt Inc.
  2026-02-05•Score: 10/10•by @juniorminingpro

  **Atlas Salt Inc.** **TSXV: SALT | OTCQX: REMRF** _Transitioning Canada’s largest undeveloped salt project from permits to production_ Market cap: ~$93 million CAD The North American industrial salt shortage is real. Atlas Salt controls the Great Atlantic Salt Project in Newfoundland. A shovel-ready 10 billion tonne resource targeting 2030 first production and an update FS mine-life of 24 years. With early works approved, Hatch Ltd. signed as lead engineering partner, and recent OTCQX uplisting, the company has de-risked execution significantly. The $350-400M debt financing in the works with Endeavour Financial positions this as a near-term producer in a $36B global market. Management just brought in mine-builder Nolan Peterson as CEO: the same caliber of operator who delivered New Afton, Rainy River, and Hope Bay. Watch for construction commencement and offtake agreements as key catalysts through 2026.

• WDC · Western Digital
  2026-02-05•Score: 9/10•by @defiweekly

  Other mentions: Seagate and Western Digital. While not being memory, they’re storage which is also in a huge shortage as the amount of data generated explodes.

• BMNR · Bitminer
  2026-02-05•Score: 10/10•by @execsum

  Bitminer (BMNR): An indirect, capital-efficient way to gain ETH exposure without raising my average ETH buying price, and backing Tomy Lee’s vision. High-conviction long-term hold.

• CSU · Constellation Software Inc.
  2026-02-05•Score: 10/10•by @hatedmoats

  Let’s dive into valuation of Constellation Software: * **Date of Analysis:** January 16-23, 2026 * **Verdict:** Undervalued * **Current Price Target (Base Case):** C$3,642 * **Price at the Time of Analysing:** C$2,713 - C$2,781.11 Constellation Software is a so-called ‘‘multi-acquirer’’, often referred to as the “Berkshire Hathaway of software”. The company specializes in buying and managing software businesses that develop vertical market software (VMS). (... Valuation Models ...) **Outcome (Base Case C$3,643/share):** As modelled above (WACC 6.2%, terminal g 3.0%, incremental ROIC = 18%). This is our core assumption set. CSU remains a high-quality acquirer, but growth naturally moderates with scale. The terminal growth rate converges toward long-run nominal growth and the discount rate reflects CSU’s relatively low beta and resilient cash generation. Outcome: This results in over +30% upside to the current price of C$2,781.11. Margin of Safety = 1 – (Current Price / Intrinsic Value) Margin of Safety = 1 – (C$2,781.11/ C$3,643) = 23.365% (rounded to 23.7%) On our defined scale, a 23.7% margin of safety places CSU in the undervalued category. (... Valuation Table Image ...) At C$2,713, CSU is priced as if the acquisition engine faces materially more “deployment friction” than our base case, i.e. either a higher required return (WACC), a lower long-run growth runway, or modestly weaker incremental ROIC. Our model explicitly charges acquisition reinvestment (so we are not getting acquired cash flows “for free”), yet the implied value still sits meaningfully above the market price. That is the key point here. Even after paying for growth, CSU screens attractive. The risk is not near-term earnings volatility but rather the capital allocation economics at scale. The question is whether CSU can continue compounding at high incremental returns as the base grows. As it stands, we view CSU as a rare case of a durable compounding machine trading at a real, model-supported discount rather than at a perfection premium.

• AMD · Advanced Micro Devices
  2026-02-05•Score: 10/10•by @mispricedassets

  AMD is sitting around **$260**. The market’s basically saying: “Nice company. Probably grows. Probably not a full-on platform-shift moment.” I think that read is wrong. What’s happening here isn’t a normal semiconductor cycle. It’s a structural breakdown of the x86 duopoly that defined enterprise computing for three decades — and **AMD is the only company executing cleanly into the exact window that matters**. The combo matters: * contracted demand * rack-scale productization * China policy loosening (at the margin) * CPU pricing power * Intel’s execution gap Put those together and you don’t get “a good semi.” You get **earnings power that steps up structurally** — meaningfully above what the Street is currently willing to underwrite. GF Securities raised their target to **$308**, citing CPU price increases and AI tailwinds. That’s a start. But if AMD’s earnings power steps up the way the current buildout and supply chain signals suggest, **$500 is arithmetic, not aspiration.** And $700 is what happens when the Street finally models the order book after it becomes painfully obvious. Before we model forward, anchor on what the market is actually paying for. **Current valuation snapshot:** * **Stock price:** ~$260 * **Forward P/E:** ~41x (buyside probably thinks it’s ~35x) * **TTM P/E:** ~128x (not useful in a ramp; earnings are inflecting) * **Street “anchor” forward EPS:****~$6.50–$7.00** That EPS anchor is the whole game. This thesis works if: 1. EPS power moves into a higher band, and 2. the multiple doesn’t collapse while the fundamentals are ripping. This isn’t just “AMD is doing well.” This is “the x86 duopoly is breaking down, and AMD is the only one left with a functional near-term roadmap.” The key point isn’t “Intel can never recover.” The point is: **the next 18–24 months are the window that matters**, and that’s exactly when AI infrastructure capex is accelerating. If Intel can’t meet the specific performance, power, and volume requirements on schedule, customers don’t wait. They re-source. And in x86 servers, the re-source option is AMD. That’s the structural edge here: supply elasticity is low and demand is inelastic. If AMD is close to sold out on key server SKUs into 2026, then the 70% share outcome isn’t an aspirational slide. It’s what happens when your competitor can’t reliably deliver. AMD’s chiplet approach (compute + I/O separated, stitched together with Infinity Fabric) isn’t a marketing term. It’s an operational weapon. It enables **silicon fungibility**: you can reallocate capacity toward the highest-margin demand pocket more cleanly than a rigid, monolithic product stack.

• RR · Richtech Robotics
  2026-02-05•Score: 10/10•by @thebearcave

  Hunterbrook Media also [published](https://x.com/hntrbrkmedia/status/2016919484703940717?s=20) on **Richtech Robotics** (NASDAQ: RR — $770 million), a company building automated robots primarily for the food service and hospitality sectors. Hunterbrook alleged that Richtech’s recent market-moving announcement of a Microsoft “partnership” was actually just a “standard customer engagement… [with] no commercial element,” according to a Microsoft spokesperson. Hunterbrook noted that Richtech raised money from investors the day after its frivolous Microsoft “partnership” announcement. In October 2025, Capybara Research [called Richtech](https://thebearcave.substack.com/p/the-bear-cave-294) “a China hustle riddled with fraud.”

• CMG · Chipotle Mexican Grill
  2026-02-05•Score: 10/10•by @investmenttalk

  In the case of Chipotle, it is my opinion that the challenges facing the company are temporal. Nature catching up with a company that overreached in price without an accompanying increase in quality. Nature eventually striking down those who traded on borrowed time. We’ve since seen Chipotle make a strong effort to bring value back to the menu with incredibly low priced, protein packed, **[offerings](https://ir.chipotle.com/2025-12-18-CHIPOTLE-UNVEILS-ITS-FIRST-EVER-HIGH-PROTEIN-MENU-FEATURING-A-NEW-SNACK-READY-HIGH-PROTEIN-CUP)**. Smaller tacos, protein bowls with 32g protein under $4. It’s not exactly my cup of tea, but it’s an obvious boon to the add-on business as well as something to satiate the cheapskates. In my mind, it doesn’t take a lot to put Chipotle back on track. In my opinion it never really derailed, but in the eyes of the fickle analysts, it has. Chipotle has an incredibly efficient box-box scaling model, high margins that can take a punch or two, and a largely untapped global market outside of the United States, where more than 95% of their stores are located. Following the intra-day dump of Chipotle on October 30th, I picked up shares for the price of $30 a piece. I find it laughable that commenters claim that Chipotle is finished. Like there is not a world outside of the borders of the U.S of A. I don’t expect much in the 2025 fiscal year results. Revenue will grow at a subdued rate. Margins will likely contract. Comparable sales are going to decline for the first time since 2016. Much of this was priced in the second it became apparent to the market, many months back. As for 2026, I see it probable that an improvement on 2025 results will occur. From there, I think the narrative will eventually shift back to business as normal. Maybe next year, maybe the one after that. Maybe the crowds shouting “Slop” will get bored and move onto the next struggling industry, who knows. I don’t invest on two-year time horizons. I am not skilled, nor lucky enough to do so. I have heard that longer time horizons improves the odds of getting lucky. Lord help me. At $30 per share, I think much of the downside is accounted for.

• N/A · Gold (Hard Asset)
  2026-02-05•Score: 9/10•by @macromornings

  The more I sit with the charts today on my screen, the more one sentence refuses to leave me alone: **most investors still don’t own enough hard assets -**not for the world we are slowly, quietly building. Year in, year out, New faces in, old faces out, Debt keeps rising, same old route. ... From **1971 to 1980**, **gold rose about +1,767%**, while the **S&P 500 gained only about +25%**. Different era, different triggers, but the same underlying truth: when the system becomes debt-heavy, investors start paying for what feels scarce and real. This is why that opening line - “none of us own enough hard assets” - isn’t poetry to me. It’s a portfolio question. ... It compresses decades into a single ratio: **Gold / S&P 500**, sitting around **0.70** today, with past “devaluation” waves highlighted like landmarks in an old atlas. ... In the **2000** - **2002** unwind, the **S&P 500 fell ~-49.1%**, while **gold rose ~+12.1%**. In the **2007** - **2009** crisis, the **S&P 500 fell ~-56.8%**, while **gold gained ~+24.4%**. I’m not citing these because I want to scare anyone. I cite them because they reveal a pattern: in certain regimes, the hedge you thought you didn’t need becomes the asset that keeps you calm enough to make rational decisions. There’s also a statistical anchor that makes this more than intuition. Gold’s relationship to real yields is one of the most persistent in macro: it is often estimated around **-0.82**, meaning it tends to move strongly _against_ real rates. When real yields become harder to sustain - financially, politically, or economically - gold often starts breathing again. ... I translate it into a regime question: **if the market begins to price cuts while the debt machine keeps stepping higher, then gold corrections can behave less like endings and more like resets.** A chance to step back, breathe, and look at the big picture without panicking - exactly as Crescat suggests.

• DKNG · DraftKings
  2026-02-05•Score: 10/10•by @thebearcave

  DraftKings stock is down ~36% since our first article, and The Bear Cave believes its value proposition is even less compelling today. Kalshi’s execution has exceeded expectations, while DraftKings continues to fall short. The Bear Cave believes the gap in execution and long-term business model disruption will become painfully obvious to DraftKings investors in the coming months. ... Why bet on DraftKings when you can get better odds, bigger bets, and more betting options on prediction markets like Kalshi?

• GOOG · Alphabet Inc.
  2026-02-05•Score: 8/10•by @defiweekly

  * GOOG: Yes, you read that correctly. Google back in 2014 invested in their TPU (Tensor Processing Units) after realising their NVDA bill was going to be very high. That investment is now paying off and they have are actually another NVDA, one that the market does not fully appreciate just yet.

• UBER · Uber Technologies
  2026-02-05•Score: 7/10•by @hatedmoats

  The idea of “Hated Moats Portfolio” is as old as this whole newsletter and its point is simple - put our money where our mouth is and buy the companies we analyse and believe in long-term. Since we set the transparency to be our main pillar here, we decided to share this portfolio as a real one, and publish its performance in real time, with our real positions we’ve been getting into since July 2025. We increased our actual cash amount assigned to this portfolio to $100,000 and normalised it as a base for the start of Hated Moats, i.e. from July 28, 2025. In Q2, we added 8 new positions into the portfolio: Constellation Software, Salesforce, Duolingo, Meta Platforms, Nebius Group, Uber Technologies, Mo-Bruk and Wix. The position has overall 15 positions by now. We are happy about the new additions, perhaps with a little bit of doubt about Duolingo.

• JPX · Japan Exchange Group
  2026-02-05•Score: 10/10•by @marketsentiment

  But what is it about the exchange that makes it immune to the tempests of the market? * Think of the exchange as a ‘contra-index equity class’. If the index goes up, the constituent stocks thrive. If the index sinks, there’s market carnage. But the exchange is agnostic to these movements. It’s monetizing ‘activity’ instead of market optimism. Whether participants want to buy or sell stocks, the exchange pockets spreads and fees and also benefits from rising volatility and transaction volume during periods of market chaos. * Another advantage of exchanges is their inherent adaptability. Despite market carnage or disruptors in an industry, the exchange still stands to win because it’s not betting on any outcome. Indices continue to rotate, and markets continue to go through bear-and-bull cycles. But whatever happens, everyone is paying rent at the exchange — short sellers, hedgers, speculators, passive investors. * Exchanges can scale unencumbered once the infrastructure is in place. They do not require proportionally more capital to support larger trading volume. * In addition, exchanges are positioned to capture new assets, financial instruments, or vehicles as markets evolve. Whether it’s obscure asset classes like Bitcoin or orange juice futures, the exchange has everything to offer as long as you’re willing to trade on the asset. If a new financial product comes into existence tomorrow, the exchange will list it and retain the fees, irrespective of whether the product succeeds or becomes a credit default swap case study for the books. This leads to the more interesting question. **If exchanges profit from activity rather than market direction, should we expect them to outperform the very markets they host?** To test this hypothesis, we construct a **global portfolio of exchanges** and compare its performance to a portfolio of the indices they host. NASDAQ and Intercontinental Exchange operate the two largest stock exchanges in the US: the NASDAQ and the NYSE, respectively. Euronext operates the major stock exchanges in 8 European countries. Japan Exchange Group owns the Tokyo Stock Exchange. Likewise, each exchange in the portfolio operates the primary exchange in its respective country.

• IREN · Iris Energy
  2026-02-05•Score: 8/10•by @defiweekly

  While there are many in this category I’ll talk about one that is common amongst most investors. * IREN: Originally from Australia, they pivoted their 100% sustainable Bitcoin business to AI data center play. They currently have 3 GW of power secured which is the equivalent of 3 full scale Nuclear reactors.

• MU · Micron
  2026-02-05•Score: 10/10•by @defiweekly

  Micron: trades at a forward P/E ratio of ~10 and US based. Makes HBM, SSDs and more. Has only run up 250% in the past year. Still has 2-5x upside imo. Even if the market doesn’t give it a higher P/E ratio, the earnings will expand the valuation.

• VOW · Volkswagen
  2026-02-05•Score: 9/10•by @moneyradar

  Volkswagen is significantly mispriced (2026 P/E 4.8x vs. 5.9x historical average) despite an ambitious €1.5 billion cost-cutting plan and a major geopolitical catalyst: the new EU-India trade deal will open up the massive Indian market (tariffs dropping from 110% to 10%), projecting 25-35% upside potential toward €135-€160.

• AMD · AMD
  2026-02-05•Score: 10/10•by @execsum

  AMD: A household name trading near historic lows, yet deeply embedded in the AI narrative. Its open-source ethos and roadmap suggest strong recovery potential in 206-2027. It’s recovery from the lows of ~$80 presented a good opportunity to buy. Target: $150 by EOY 2025; $300+ in a breakout scenario.

• AMCX · AMC Networks
  2026-02-05•Score: 7/10•by @thebearcave

  AMC Networks, $3.8 million ADV, entertainment distribution company, long-term headwind from cable cord-cutting, controlled by the Dolan family, four CEOs in the last five years, most recently James Dolan’s wife, see ‘[AMC Networks Owner James Dolan Finds a New CEO: His Spouse](https://www.wsj.com/business/media/amc-networks-owner-james-dolan-plots-turnaround-eyes-spouse-as-ceo-candidate-86c8dbf7)’, declining revenues, poorly timed stock buybacks, significant debt burden. Total return of -82% since June 2011 vs +462% for S&P 500.

• ALX · Alexander’s Inc.
  2026-02-05•Score: 10/10•by @yetanothervalueblog

  Host Andrew Walker welcomes back Bill Chen for the fastest return in YAVP history. After running out of time in their last chat, Bill returns to dissect Alexander’s Inc. (ALX), exploring its complex debt restructuring, unique real estate portfolio, and intriguing market valuation. The two dive deep into the Bloomberg HQ lease, the nuances of retail space refinancing, and the strategic implications of Steven Roth’s leadership. They also tackle REIT governance concerns, dividend sustainability, and the mystery behind ALX’s high short interest. Bill closes with thoughts on grocery-anchored REITs, White Stone, and REIT buybacks.

• N/A · Real Estate (Asset Class)
  2026-02-05•Score: 8/10•by @kerrylutz

  The conversation then shifted to the potential risks to Bitcoin, including government intervention, and recommended investing in real estate as a long-term play.

• PAX · Patria Investments
  2026-02-05•Score: 8/10•by @thebearcave

  Snow Cap Research [published](https://x.com/SnowCapResearch/status/2015791677055606935?s=20) on **Patria Investments** (NASDAQ: PAX — $2.33 billion), a Latin American asset management firm. Snow Cap alleged the company may be “overstating performance and concealing losses within its flagship private equity and infrastructure funds.” Snow Cap also highlighted that in December 2025 Patria’s CFO resigned (effective April 2026) and in April 2025 Patria switched auditors from Deloitte to KPMG.

• APLD · Applied Digital
  2026-02-05•Score: 8/10•by @defiweekly

  * APLD: Applied Digital is in the construction business of theses actual data centers. They have $11b of contracted revenue with a market cap of $6b.

• WIX · Wix.com Ltd.
  2026-02-05•Score: 10/10•by @hatedmoats

  Wix.com Ltd. ( [WIX -3.13%↓](https://substack.com/discover/stocks/WIX) ) enters 2026 at a genuine inflection point. The stock’s ~50% drawdown through 2025 reflects a single dominant fear. The “Chegg Outcome”, where open-ended LLMs commoditise incumbent software and users bypass the UI entirely. On that framing, a website builder becomes an anachronism, and the equity deserves a permanently lower multiple. Our view is that this fear is reductive. Wix is'n’t positioning itself as “a website builder” anymore. The strategic pivot is toward becoming an AI operating system for web and app creation, anchored by the Base44 acquisition (natural-language full-stack “vibe coding”) and the launch of Wix Harmony (AI-assisted onboarding and creation). Base44 is the key chess move here. It captures a large, fast-growing “prosumer” cohort that is beyond drag-and-drop, yet not a traditional developer. In other words, Wix is attempting to sit exactly where the value migrates, i.e. between raw LLM capability and a production-grade, deployable web/app output that SMBs can actually run, monetise, and manage. Two catalysts reinforce the asymmetry. First, Base44 exited 2025 with approximately $50M ARR run-rate per management and had user growth scaling rapidly, giving Wix a credible third pillar beyond subscriptions and payments. Second, the $2B buyback authorisation announced January 28, 2026 is unusually aggressive relative to Wix’s market cap. By all means, this is not a routine, maintenance repurchase. It reads as management’s own statement that the market is materially mispricing the future cash-generation capacity of the business, at exactly the moment when the narrative has turned most pessimistic. *** **Verdict:** Deeply Undervalued **Current Price Target (Base Case):** $145 **Price at the Time of Analysing:** $86.84 *** A 40% margin of safety places Wix in the undervalued bucket, on the verge of deeply undervalued, where the stock gets at the price of <$85 per share (i.e., currently >20% MoS for undervalued threshold &>40% for deeply undervalued). Put differently, the market price is discounting either a materially higher risk premium than our 10% WACC, structurally weaker long-run margins, and/or a post-2035 decline profile that is inconsistent with our base-case durability assumptions. Under our base case, Wix’s value proposition is not “a legacy website builder,” but an increasingly integrated subscription and transaction platform with AI-driven retention and ARPU tailwinds (Base44 as a significant upside optionality). Scenario framing reinforces the asymmetry: bear $61/share, base $145/share, bull $211/share. The current price ($86.84) implies a meaningfully more pessimistic steady-state than our normalised base. The author of this report does hold a position in the security of Wix.com Ltd in private portfolio since Jan 27, 2026 at $86.42 per share as well as a position in our Hated Moats Portfolio from the same date, with avg. price of $86.72. This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

• NDAQ · NASDAQ
  2026-02-05•Score: 10/10•by @marketsentiment

  But what is it about the exchange that makes it immune to the tempests of the market? * Think of the exchange as a ‘contra-index equity class’. If the index goes up, the constituent stocks thrive. If the index sinks, there’s market carnage. But the exchange is agnostic to these movements. It’s monetizing ‘activity’ instead of market optimism. Whether participants want to buy or sell stocks, the exchange pockets spreads and fees and also benefits from rising volatility and transaction volume during periods of market chaos. * Another advantage of exchanges is their inherent adaptability. Despite market carnage or disruptors in an industry, the exchange still stands to win because it’s not betting on any outcome. Indices continue to rotate, and markets continue to go through bear-and-bull cycles. But whatever happens, everyone is paying rent at the exchange — short sellers, hedgers, speculators, passive investors. * Exchanges can scale unencumbered once the infrastructure is in place. They do not require proportionally more capital to support larger trading volume. * In addition, exchanges are positioned to capture new assets, financial instruments, or vehicles as markets evolve. Whether it’s obscure asset classes like Bitcoin or orange juice futures, the exchange has everything to offer as long as you’re willing to trade on the asset. If a new financial product comes into existence tomorrow, the exchange will list it and retain the fees, irrespective of whether the product succeeds or becomes a credit default swap case study for the books. This leads to the more interesting question. **If exchanges profit from activity rather than market direction, should we expect them to outperform the very markets they host?** To test this hypothesis, we construct a **global portfolio of exchanges** and compare its performance to a portfolio of the indices they host. NASDAQ and Intercontinental Exchange operate the two largest stock exchanges in the US: the NASDAQ and the NYSE, respectively. Euronext operates the major stock exchanges in 8 European countries. Japan Exchange Group owns the Tokyo Stock Exchange. Likewise, each exchange in the portfolio operates the primary exchange in its respective country.

• ICE · Intercontinental Exchange
  2026-02-05•Score: 10/10•by @marketsentiment

  But what is it about the exchange that makes it immune to the tempests of the market? * Think of the exchange as a ‘contra-index equity class’. If the index goes up, the constituent stocks thrive. If the index sinks, there’s market carnage. But the exchange is agnostic to these movements. It’s monetizing ‘activity’ instead of market optimism. Whether participants want to buy or sell stocks, the exchange pockets spreads and fees and also benefits from rising volatility and transaction volume during periods of market chaos. * Another advantage of exchanges is their inherent adaptability. Despite market carnage or disruptors in an industry, the exchange still stands to win because it’s not betting on any outcome. Indices continue to rotate, and markets continue to go through bear-and-bull cycles. But whatever happens, everyone is paying rent at the exchange — short sellers, hedgers, speculators, passive investors. * Exchanges can scale unencumbered once the infrastructure is in place. They do not require proportionally more capital to support larger trading volume. * In addition, exchanges are positioned to capture new assets, financial instruments, or vehicles as markets evolve. Whether it’s obscure asset classes like Bitcoin or orange juice futures, the exchange has everything to offer as long as you’re willing to trade on the asset. If a new financial product comes into existence tomorrow, the exchange will list it and retain the fees, irrespective of whether the product succeeds or becomes a credit default swap case study for the books. This leads to the more interesting question. **If exchanges profit from activity rather than market direction, should we expect them to outperform the very markets they host?** To test this hypothesis, we construct a **global portfolio of exchanges** and compare its performance to a portfolio of the indices they host. NASDAQ and Intercontinental Exchange operate the two largest stock exchanges in the US: the NASDAQ and the NYSE, respectively. Euronext operates the major stock exchanges in 8 European countries. Japan Exchange Group owns the Tokyo Stock Exchange. Likewise, each exchange in the portfolio operates the primary exchange in its respective country.

• SNDK · Sandisk
  2026-02-05•Score: 9/10•by @defiweekly

  Sandisk: probably the hardest of them all to own as it’s run up 500% and the math around NAND/Flash memory defensibility is questionable. Still a massive supply shortage. If High Bandwidth Flash becomes real then Sandisk is a steal. They’re collaborating with Hynix on this so TBD.

• VUSION · Vusion (formerly VusionGroup or SES-imagotag)
  2026-02-05•Score: 10/10•by @heavymoatinvestments

  Vusion (formerly VusionGroup or SES-imagotag) is a global provider of retail IoT solutions. That sounds complex, but in plain terms it means electronic shelf labels (ESL) that allow retailers to automatically update prices and product information. It also includes i.e. cameras that analyze whether products on the shelves are running low. On top of that, there are software solutions that update the data and generate reports. The company sells primarily to large retailers worldwide. You may have seen its products in stores such as Walmart, Ikea or Sephora. As early as 2022, the company had already won 30 percent of the world’s 250 largest retailers and 50 percent of the top 50 retailers as customers. That figure is likely significantly higher today. After a strong track record of market outperformance, Vusion fell almost 30% in a few days without any news and is down 50% since ATHs! Maybe now is the perfect time to dive deeper into this fascinating business, while acknowledging that there might be negative news around the corner and insiders are already trading based upon it._**A word of caution beforehand on valuing this business: Don’t look at unadjusted Free Cash Flows, because those are currently massively inflated by Working Capital changes (down-payments) and customer funded CapEx. A more realistic EBITDA to FCF conversion is around 50%, not 200%.**_ Vusion follows a hybrid product and services business model with three core building blocks. the ideal retail store, as Vusion imagines it in a few years **Hardware sales:** Primarily electronic shelf labels and sensors, which form the foundation for digitalizing store shelves. This so-called installed base needs to be replaced after several years (but I am skeptical that stores really need to replace it in size and won’t just replace the broken ones to save on CapEx). Each new generation offers more digital capabilities and therefore enables cross-selling of additional services to customers. **Platform and software (VusionCloud, EdgeSense, Memory, etc.):** This is the technological backbone of all Vusion offerings. It consists of cloud and edge software that connects, manages, and collects data from physical devices such as shelf labels, sensors, and cameras. It can be compared to a cloud platform like AWS, but specifically built for retailers. **Value-Added Services (VAS):** VAS represents the application layer built on top of the platform and is designed to solve concrete business problems for retailers. This is where Vusion monetizes the data collected via the platform through services such as system integrations, data analytics, computer vision solutions (for example, cameras monitoring shelves and alerting staff when products need to be replenished), retail media solutions (such as digital advertising displayed on unused shelf space) and consulting services. These offerings typically generate higher margins and recurring revenues. VAS is expected to grow significantly faster than product revenue in the future. VAS is a key focus area for management, but it is somewhat difficult to understand. VAS can refer to either software or hardware and is used whenever revenue goes beyond the core ESL business. As a result, cameras (for machine vision), displays, or video rails (rails with video capabilities used for advertising) are classified as VAS, even though they are physical products. They are not pure ESLs, but part of data-driven or retail media use cases. By increasing the share of recurring revenues, the predictability and profitability of the business should improve. Vusion focuses on battery-free devices that receive power through the rails to which they are attached. Revenue of around €1 billion is split roughly 50/50 between EMEA and the rest of the world. The company has more than 350 customers. Revenue in the Americas has grown strongly in recent years, driven by a major cooperation under which all U.S. Walmart stores are being equipped with ESLs and cloud services to improve store efficiency.

• NVTS · Navitas Semiconductor
  2026-02-05•Score: 7/10•by @defiweekly

  * NVTS: This is a more smaller play but showcases what is possible. Navitas creates power transformers based on GaN (Gallium Nitride) and SiC (Silicon Carbide) that allows you to step down large currents to ones needed by individual components. This is critical since the newer generation of GPUs etc are drawing increasingly more power.

• 000660.KS · SK Hynix
  2026-02-05•Score: 10/10•by @defiweekly

  SK Hynix: dominant market leader in HBM controlling 60%+ of marketshare. Forward P/E ratio of ~7/8 and expected to list on US exchanges via an ADR which will pump the addressable market of investors.

• HOG · Harley-Davidson
  2026-02-05•Score: 10/10•by @moneyradar

  Harley-Davidson est un nom légendaire dans l’univers de la moto. Fondée en 1903 à Milwaukee, la marque américaine s’est imposée comme le symbole de la liberté sur deux roues, avec ses gros bicylindres en V au son reconnaissable entre mille. L’entreprise conçoit, fabrique et commercialise des motos haut de gamme, principalement des cruisers et des touring bikes, ainsi que des pièces, accessoires et équipements sous licence. La clientèle historique de Harley est constituée de passionnés, souvent des quinquagénaires nostalgiques du rêve américain. Ce positionnement premium a longtemps fait la force de la marque, mais il devient aujourd’hui son talon d’Achille : les jeunes générations roulent moins, achètent moins de grosses cylindrées, et sont davantage attirées par l’électrique ou les marques asiatiques plus accessibles. Harley-Davidson possède également HDFS (Harley-Davidson Financial Services), sa filiale de financement qui propose des crédits et assurances aux acheteurs de motos. Cette activité représente une part significative des profits du groupe. Les chiffres récents de Harley-Davidson illustrent bien le déclin de l’entreprise. Le chiffre d’affaires devrait passer de 5,84 milliards de dollars en 2023 à environ 3,75 milliards en 2026, soit une chute de 35% en trois ans. Le bénéfice par action, qui avait atteint 4,96$ en 2022, devrait tomber à 2,09$ cette année. Malgré cette contraction, l’entreprise reste profitable. Harley a fait le ménage : réduction des coûts, désendettement progressif, et surtout un accord stratégique majeur signé en juillet 2025 avec KKR et PIMCO. Ce deal a permis de céder 9,8% de HDFS et plus de 5 milliards de dollars de créances clients, libérant 1,25 milliard de dollars de trésorerie disponible et allégeant considérablement les besoins en capital du groupe. En analysant le bilan pour ne garder que les actifs tangibles (actifs courants et créances, moins la dette), la valeur par action ressort à près de 19. Autrement dit, au cours actuel de 19,56, on paie l’activité moto pour quasiment rien. Le cash-flow libre attendu dépasse les 400 millions de dollars en 2026, ce qui donne une valorisation ridiculement basse pour une entreprise qui génère encore du cash. L’action Harley-Davidson divise profondément. D’un côté, les fondamentaux restent inquiétants : déclin des ventes, clientèle vieillissante, perte de parts de marché face aux japonais et à Indian (Polaris), et impact des tarifs douaniers sur l’international. L’ancien PDG a laissé un héritage compliqué : dealers mécontents, stocks excédentaires, et une stratégie de travail à distance qui a nui à la cohésion de l’entreprise. De l’autre côté, la valorisation actuelle semble intégrer le pire scénario possible. Avec un programme de rachat d’actions de 200 millions de dollars en cours et une base d’actifs solide, le risque de perte semble limité. Certains analystes visent un objectif de cours à 30$, soit 50% de hausse. **Le verdict** : Un pari “value” pour investisseurs patients. La baisse semble limitée par la valeur des actifs, mais le catalyseur de hausse n’est pas encore visible. À surveiller avec les résultats du 10 février.

• VOW.DE · Volkswagen
  2026-02-05•Score: 9/10•by @moneyradar

  Volkswagen est un acteur majeur sur la scène mondiale de l’industrie automobile. Fondée en 1937 et basée à Wolfsburg en Allemagne, cette entreprise se spécialise dans la conception, le développement et la fabrication de véhicules pour les particuliers et les professionnels, tout en proposant des services de financement, de location et de gestion de flotte. Le groupe rassemble un portefeuille de marques importantes incluant Volkswagen, Audi, Porsche, SEAT, Škoda, Bentley, Lamborghini et Bugatti, ainsi que les motos Ducati et les camions MAN et Scania. Premier constructeur automobile en Europe depuis 1988 et deuxième constructeur mondial, Volkswagen a su s’imposer comme un leader incontournable dans son domaine. En 2024, le groupe a affiché un chiffre d’affaires d’environ 325 milliards d’euros, tout en maintenant une présence internationale avec plus de 100 sites de production répartis dans 27 pays et des opérations dans environ 150 pays à travers le monde. En 2025, Volkswagen a fait face à des problèmes significatifs, notamment avec l’introduction de tarifs douaniers américains qui ont pesé lourdement sur ses résultats. Au cours des neuf premiers mois de l’année, ces tarifs ont entraîné une perte de trésorerie de 1,9 milliard de dollars, sans compter les 900 millions d’euros de coûts liés à la restructuration de l’entreprise. Malgré ces défis, les ventes du groupe ont progressé de 2% pour atteindre 6,6 millions de véhicules, tandis que les revenus ont augmenté de 1% à 238,7 milliards d’euros. Cette croissance masque toutefois des réalités contrastées : si les marques du groupe Core et Progressive ont enregistré des hausses de revenus de 5% et des ventes en progression de 4% à 6%, Porsche a subi un recul marqué avec des ventes en baisse de 11% et des revenus en repli de 8%. En Chine, marché historiquement crucial pour le groupe, les ventes ont reculé de 4%. Face à ces difficultés, la direction a annoncé un plan d’économies ambitieux visant 1,5 milliard d’euros de réduction de coûts d’ici 2026. Ce plan s’accompagne d’une diminution de la capacité de production de 760 000 unités et d’une réduction de 35 000 emplois. L’objectif est de redresser la marge bénéficiaire opérationnelle, qui devrait passer de 3% en 2025 à 5,4% en 2030. Pour y parvenir, Volkswagen mise sur le lancement de cinq nouveaux véhicules électriques d’entrée de gamme en Europe en 2026 et de quinze nouveaux modèles thermiques développés localement en Chine pour mieux répondre aux attentes du marché local. Les objectifs de cours oscillent entre 135 et 160 € par action, ce qui représente un potentiel de hausse de 25 à 35% par rapport aux niveaux actuels. Cette opportunité s’appuie sur une valorisation particulièrement attractive : le ratio cours/bénéfice anticipé pour 2026 se situe à 4,8 fois, bien en-dessous de la moyenne historique sur dix ans de 5,9 fois. De plus, le rendement du dividende projeté à 6,2% en 2026 et 7,7% en 2027 dépasse largement la moyenne historique de 4,5%, ce qui suggère que le marché sous-évalue actuellement les perspectives de redressement de l’entreprise. L’ouverture du marché indien, avec la baisse progressive des tarifs douaniers de 110% à 10%, constitue une opportunité majeure pour compenser ces difficultés, mais elle ne se concrétisera que sur le moyen terme. L’action convient donc aux investisseurs patients capables de supporter les fluctuations à court terme pour capter le potentiel de redressement à horizon 2027-2030.

• ??? · Fundora - Intercontinental Debt Strategy
  2026-02-05•Score: 10/10•by @moneyradar

  Notre partenaire Fundora brise les barrières en rendant la dette privée accessible dès 1 000 euros grâce à la mutualisation des tickets. Vous investissez dans les mêmes conditions que les institutionnels, sans passer par des montages complexes ou des structures opaques. Même cadre, même discipline, même niveau d’exigence. Intercontinental Debt, la stratégie que propose Fundora, est une stratégie éprouvée qui tourne depuis plusieurs années avec des résultats vérifiables. Zéro défaut depuis 2020. La mécanique est rigoureuse : uniquement de la dette senior sécurisée accordée à des entreprises profitables, avec des garanties réelles systématiques et une diversification internationale maîtrisée sur trois continents (Afrique, Asie, Amérique latine). Les secteurs financés sont porteurs : finance digitale, énergie distribuée, mobilité, infrastructures climatiques. Chaque prêt est amortissable et sur-collatéralisé à hauteur de 15% à 50%. Cette sur-garantie crée un matelas de sécurité qui protège votre capital même si la valorisation des actifs baisse. C’est cette discipline de fer qui permet de maintenir des rendements stables à deux chiffres sans prendre de risques démesurés. Les chiffres parlent d’eux-mêmes depuis 2020 : 0% de taux de défaut pour les créanciers seniors, des rendements nets entre 10,7% et 11,7% par an, et des revenus distribués chaque trimestre. Pas de montagnes russes, pas de nuits blanches à surveiller les cours. Juste une mécanique stable qui tourne depuis des années.

• HOG · Harley-Davidson
  2026-02-05•Score: 9/10•by @moneyradar

  Harley-Davidson est un nom légendaire dans l’univers de la moto. Fondée en 1903 à Milwaukee, la marque américaine s’est imposée comme le symbole de la liberté sur deux roues, avec ses gros bicylindres en V au son reconnaissable entre mille. L’entreprise conçoit, fabrique et commercialise des motos haut de gamme, principalement des cruisers et des touring bikes, ainsi que des pièces, accessoires et équipements sous licence. La clientèle historique de Harley est constituée de passionnés, souvent des quinquagénaires nostalgiques du rêve américain. Ce positionnement premium a longtemps fait la force de la marque, mais il devient aujourd’hui son talon d’Achille : les jeunes générations roulent moins, achètent moins de grosses cylindrées, et sont davantage attirées par l’électrique ou les marques asiatiques plus accessibles. Harley-Davidson possède également HDFS (Harley-Davidson Financial Services), sa filiale de financement qui propose des crédits et assurances aux acheteurs de motos. Cette activité représente une part significative des profits du groupe. Les chiffres récents de Harley-Davidson illustrent bien le déclin de l’entreprise. Le chiffre d’affaires devrait passer de 5,84 milliards de dollars en 2023 à environ 3,75 milliards en 2026, soit une chute de 35% en trois ans. Le bénéfice par action, qui avait atteint 4,96$ en 2022, devrait tomber à 2,09$ cette année. Malgré cette contraction, l’entreprise reste profitable. Harley a fait le ménage : réduction des coûts, désendettement progressif, et surtout un accord stratégique majeur signé en juillet 2025 avec KKR et PIMCO. Ce deal a permis de céder 9,8% de HDFS et plus de 5 milliards de dollars de créances clients, libérant 1,25 milliard de dollars de trésorerie disponible et allégeant considérablement les besoins en capital du groupe. En analysant le bilan pour ne garder que les actifs tangibles (actifs courants et créances, moins la dette), la valeur par action ressort à près de 19. Autrement dit, au cours actuel de 19,56, on paie l’activité moto pour quasiment rien. Le cash-flow libre attendu dépasse les 400 millions de dollars en 2026, ce qui donne une valorisation ridiculement basse pour une entreprise qui génère encore du cash. L’action Harley-Davidson divise profondément. D’un côté, les fondamentaux restent inquiétants : déclin des ventes, clientèle vieillissante, perte de parts de marché face aux japonais et à Indian (Polaris), et impact des tarifs douaniers sur l’international. L’ancien PDG a laissé un héritage compliqué : dealers mécontents, stocks excédentaires, et une stratégie de travail à distance qui a nui à la cohésion de l’entreprise. De l’autre côté, la valorisation actuelle semble intégrer le pire scénario possible. Avec un programme de rachat d’actions de 200 millions de dollars en cours et une base d’actifs solide, le risque de perte semble limité. Certains analystes visent un objectif de cours à 30$, soit 50% de hausse. **Le verdict** : Un pari “value” pour investisseurs patients. La baisse semble limitée par la valeur des actifs, mais le catalyseur de hausse n’est pas encore visible. À surveiller avec les résultats du 10 février.

• VOW / VOW3 · Volkswagen
  2026-02-05•Score: 10/10•by @moneyradar

  Volkswagen est un acteur majeur sur la scène mondiale de l’industrie automobile. Fondée en 1937 et basée à Wolfsburg en Allemagne, cette entreprise se spécialise dans la conception, le développement et la fabrication de véhicules pour les particuliers et les professionnels, tout en proposant des services de financement, de location et de gestion de flotte. Le groupe rassemble un portefeuille de marques importantes incluant Volkswagen, Audi, Porsche, SEAT, Škoda, Bentley, Lamborghini et Bugatti, ainsi que les motos Ducati et les camions MAN et Scania. Premier constructeur automobile en Europe depuis 1988 et deuxième constructeur mondial, Volkswagen a su s’imposer comme un leader incontournable dans son domaine. En 2024, le groupe a affiché un chiffre d’affaires d’environ 325 milliards d’euros, tout en maintenant une présence internationale avec plus de 100 sites de production répartis dans 27 pays et des opérations dans environ 150 pays à travers le monde. En 2025, Volkswagen a fait face à des problèmes significatifs, notamment avec l’introduction de tarifs douaniers américains qui ont pesé lourdement sur ses résultats. Au cours des neuf premiers mois de l’année, ces tarifs ont entraîné une perte de trésorerie de 1,9 milliard de dollars, sans compter les 900 millions d’euros de coûts liés à la restructuration de l’entreprise. Malgré ces défis, les ventes du groupe ont progressé de 2% pour atteindre 6,6 millions de véhicules, tandis que les revenus ont augmenté de 1% à 238,7 milliards d’euros. Cette croissance masque toutefois des réalités contrastées : si les marques du groupe Core et Progressive ont enregistré des hausses de revenus de 5% et des ventes en progression de 4% à 6%, Porsche a subi un recul marqué avec des ventes en baisse de 11% et des revenus en repli de 8%. En Chine, marché historiquement crucial pour le groupe, les ventes ont reculé de 4%. Face à ces difficultés, la direction a annoncé un plan d’économies ambitieux visant 1,5 milliard d’euros de réduction de coûts d’ici 2026. Ce plan s’accompagne d’une diminution de la capacité de production de 760 000 unités et d’une réduction de 35 000 emplois. L’objectif est de redresser la marge bénéficiaire opérationnelle, qui devrait passer de 3% en 2025 à 5,4% en 2030. Pour y parvenir, Volkswagen mise sur le lancement de cinq nouveaux véhicules électriques d’entrée de gamme en Europe en 2026 et de quinze nouveaux modèles thermiques développés localement en Chine pour mieux répondre aux attentes du marché local. Les objectifs de cours oscillent entre 135 et 160 € par action, ce qui représente un potentiel de hausse de 25 à 35% par rapport aux niveaux actuels. Cette opportunité s’appuie sur une valorisation particulièrement attractive : le ratio cours/bénéfice anticipé pour 2026 se situe à 4,8 fois, bien en-dessous de la moyenne historique sur dix ans de 5,9 fois. De plus, le rendement du dividende projeté à 6,2% en 2026 et 7,7% en 2027 dépasse largement la moyenne historique de 4,5%, ce qui suggère que le marché sous-évalue actuellement les perspectives de redressement de l’entreprise. L’ouverture du marché indien, avec la baisse progressive des tarifs douaniers de 110% à 10%, constitue une opportunité majeure pour compenser ces difficultés, mais elle ne se concrétisera que sur le moyen terme. L’action convient donc aux investisseurs patients capables de supporter les fluctuations à court terme pour capter le potentiel de redressement à horizon 2027-2030.

• SILVER · Silver Commodity (XAG/USD)
  2026-02-05•Score: 10/10•by @greyrabbitfinance

  Silver remains in a primary bullish trend. Despite the violent liquidation candle, price **never closed below the Ichimoku cloud** and the long-term structure continues to print **higher highs and higher lows**. The broader trend channel remains intact, and all five Ichimoku lines… while temporarily compressed… **are still rising on the higher timeframe**, confirming that the dominant bullish structure remains in place. Silver completed its Wave (3) extension directly into the Henka-bi timing window and then experienced a controlled liquidation back into structural support. Price wicked deeply into the lower channel boundary but **held well above the rising cloud**, rejecting from the major support zone around **70.09** (your chart marks this level explicitly). The rebound back into the 80–83 region shows the market defending trend structure, with bullish N-wave geometry still intact. Overhead resistance has **not** changed… Silver still faces its next meaningful ceiling at **121.64**, with the extended Wave (5) projection at **126.03**. The liquidation did not create new resistance; it simply reset the trend. The move appears to be a **parabolic compression** rather than exhaustion. Nothing in the chart signals topping behavior… instead, we see a classic “reset + continuation” pattern typical of metals in the early stages of a strong cycle. This remains a beginning-of-parabola structure, not the end of one. Short sellers: proceed with caution. Silver is still well above the cloud on the higher timeframe. The Tenkan/Kijun spread has reset, which removes overextension and typically precedes the next expansion move. Key structural levels visible on the chart: * **85.42** — Initial bounce zone (local 0.382 region) * **77.85** — Mid-range retracement (0.50) * **70.20** — Maximum healthy pullback (0.618) — _this was nearly tagged_ * **E ≈ 72.7** — Cloud edge support * **63.87 – 58.43** — Deep Kumo + cycle-level support cluster * **54.90** — NT-level support (your chart marks this as a long-term structural floor) Wave structure: * Wave (3) has completed * Current move is Wave (4) * Wave (5) projection remains targeted toward **121–126** The corrective structure aligns perfectly with the Ichimoku equilibrium zones. **Immediate Support Zones** * **85.42** — First corrective zone * **77.85** — Mean-reversion support * **70.20** — Confirmed structural support (major level from your chart) * **63.87 → 58.43** — Deeper structural cluster * **54.90** — Long-term floor **Upside Levels** * **121.64** — Major resistance * **126.03** — Wave (5) 1.618 extension target As long as price holds **above 58.4**, the long-term bullish structure remains completely intact. Your chart shows two critical Henka-bi timing lines: * **Feb 2** — Reaction window (flush + stabilization) * **Feb 18** — Next continuation window These timing clusters strongly suggest that silver is likely to: * base above **70–78**, and * initiate its next impulsive leg higher into mid- to late-February. Kumo twists further out also support bullish continuation into March. Nothing in the updated chart invalidates the bullish thesis. Silver still carries the same structural deficits, Western short positioning, and Eastbound physical demand dynamics as before. The January flush was a **healthy reset within an ongoing bull**, not the end of the move. Silver remains in the early stages of a parabolic expansion… **and the chart now confirms it even more clearly.**

• GDX · VanEck Gold Miners ETF
  2026-02-05•Score: 7/10•by @greyrabbitfinance

  The **VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX)** sank **17%** to **$94.20**, reflecting the extreme stress across the metals complex. This was not an end to the bull cycle. It was a **controlled reset** inside it. . . The same players who drained SLV in October have returned, now under far more aggressive conditions: Asian demand is accelerating, London inventories are thinner than the public realizes, Physical premiums are widening, Authorized participants can redeem SLV for physical, And the January 30 shakeout freed up the metal to feed this flow. . . Gold and silver remain structurally bid despite volatility. . . The January flush was a **healthy reset within an ongoing bull**, not the end of the move. Silver remains in the early stages of a parabolic expansion…

• SLVP · iShares MSCI Global Silver & Metals Miners ETF
  2026-02-05•Score: 7/10•by @greyrabbitfinance

  The **iShares MSCI Global Silver & Metals Miners ETF (SLVP)** closed down **23%** at **$38.60**, tracking the historic collapse in silver prices. This was not an end to the bull cycle. It was a **controlled reset** inside it. . . The same players who drained SLV in October have returned, now under far more aggressive conditions: Asian demand is accelerating, London inventories are thinner than the public realizes, Physical premiums are widening, Authorized participants can redeem SLV for physical, And the January 30 shakeout freed up the metal to feed this flow. . . Gold and silver remain structurally bid despite volatility. . . The January flush was a **healthy reset within an ongoing bull**, not the end of the move. Silver remains in the early stages of a parabolic expansion…

• WIX · Wix.com Ltd.
  2026-02-05•Score: 10/10•by @hatedmoats

  * **Verdict:** Deeply Undervalued * **Current Price Target (Base Case):** $145 * **Price at the Time of Analysing:** $86.84 Wix.com Ltd. ( [WIX -3.13%↓](https://substack.com/discover/stocks/WIX) ) enters 2026 at a genuine inflection point. The stock’s ~50% drawdown through 2025 reflects a single dominant fear. The “Chegg Outcome”, where open-ended LLMs commoditise incumbent software and users bypass the UI entirely. On that framing, a website builder becomes an anachronism, and the equity deserves a permanently lower multiple. Our view is that this fear is reductive. Wix is'n’t positioning itself as “a website builder” anymore. The strategic pivot is toward becoming an AI operating system for web and app creation, anchored by the Base44 acquisition (natural-language full-stack “vibe coding”) and the launch of Wix Harmony (AI-assisted onboarding and creation). Base44 is the key chess move here. It captures a large, fast-growing “prosumer” cohort that is beyond drag-and-drop, yet not a traditional developer. In other words, Wix is attempting to sit exactly where the value migrates, i.e. between raw LLM capability and a production-grade, deployable web/app output that SMBs can actually run, monetise, and manage. Two catalysts reinforce the asymmetry. First, Base44 exited 2025 with approximately $50M ARR run-rate per management and had user growth scaling rapidly, giving Wix a credible third pillar beyond subscriptions and payments. Second, the $2B buyback authorisation announced January 28, 2026 is unusually aggressive relative to Wix’s market cap. By all means, this is not a routine, maintenance repurchase. It reads as management’s own statement that the market is materially mispricing the future cash-generation capacity of the business, at exactly the moment when the narrative has turned most pessimistic. ... Margin of Safety = 1 – (Current Price / Intrinsic Value) Margin of Safety = 1 – ($86.84 / $145) = 40.1% A 40% margin of safety places Wix in the undervalued bucket, on the verge of deeply undervalued, where the stock gets at the price of <$85 per share (i.e., currently >20% MoS for undervalued threshold &>40% for deeply undervalued). Put differently, the market price is discounting either a materially higher risk premium than our 10% WACC, structurally weaker long-run margins, and/or a post-2035 decline profile that is inconsistent with our base-case durability assumptions. ... Under our base case, Wix’s value proposition is not “a legacy website builder,” but an increasingly integrated subscription and transaction platform with AI-driven retention and ARPU tailwinds (Base44 as a significant upside optionality). Scenario framing reinforces the asymmetry: bear $61/share, base $145/share, bull $211/share. The current price ($86.84) implies a meaningfully more pessimistic steady-state than our normalised base. The author of this report does hold a position in the security of Wix.com Ltd in private portfolio since Jan 27, 2026 at $86.42 per share as well as a position in our Hated Moats Portfolio from the same date, with avg. price of $86.72. This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

• SILVER · SILVER (Commodity)
  2026-02-05•Score: 9/10•by @greyrabbitfinance

  Last Friday silver experienced the **largest 1-day collapse in modern market history**, sending shockwaves across the metals space. But was it just leverage unwinding… or the beginning of a deeper structural shift? We cover: • The Silver Slam: What caused the historic 1-day crash? Why it happened, who got wiped out, and whether this bull market is still intact. • Paper vs Physical: When does physical take over price discovery? • JPMorgan’s Perfectly Timed Bottom • COMEX Delivery Shock — 12.5 Million Ounces Accepted Instantly. Is this a sign of physical stress? And why did JPM issue all 633 notices? • The Shanghai–Western Silver Divergence. At one point last week, Shanghai silver traded around **45% above** Western silver — the largest premium in the modern global market. This episode connects the dots between: **COMEX, BRICS, physical shortages, monetary policy, and the global power shift from West to East.**

• SILVER · Silver (Commodity)
  2026-02-05•Score: 9/10•by @greyrabbitfinance

  Silver remains in a primary bullish trend. Despite the violent liquidation candle, price **never closed below the Ichimoku cloud** and the long-term structure continues to print **higher highs and higher lows**. The broader trend channel remains intact, and all five Ichimoku lines… while temporarily compressed… **are still rising on the higher timeframe**, confirming that the dominant bullish structure remains in place. Silver completed its Wave (3) extension directly into the Henka-bi timing window and then experienced a controlled liquidation back into structural support. Price wicked deeply into the lower channel boundary but **held well above the rising cloud**, rejecting from the major support zone around **70.09** (your chart marks this level explicitly). The rebound back into the 80–83 region shows the market defending trend structure, with bullish N-wave geometry still intact. Overhead resistance has **not** changed… Silver still faces its next meaningful ceiling at **121.64**, with the extended Wave (5) projection at **126.03**. The liquidation did not create new resistance; it simply reset the trend. The move appears to be a **parabolic compression** rather than exhaustion. Nothing in the chart signals topping behavior… instead, we see a classic “reset + continuation” pattern typical of metals in the early stages of a strong cycle. This remains a beginning-of-parabola structure, not the end of one. Short sellers: proceed with caution. Silver is still well above the cloud on the higher timeframe. The Tenkan/Kijun spread has reset, which removes overextension and typically precedes the next expansion move. Key structural levels visible on the chart: * **85.42** — Initial bounce zone (local 0.382 region) * **77.85** — Mid-range retracement (0.50) * **70.20** — Maximum healthy pullback (0.618) — _this was nearly tagged_ * **E ≈ 72.7** — Cloud edge support * **63.87 – 58.43** — Deep Kumo + cycle-level support cluster * **54.90** — NT-level support (your chart marks this as a long-term structural floor) Wave structure: * Wave (3) has completed * Current move is Wave (4) * Wave (5) projection remains targeted toward **121–126** The corrective structure aligns perfectly with the Ichimoku equilibrium zones. **Immediate Support Zones** * **85.42** — First corrective zone * **77.85** — Mean-reversion support * **70.20** — Confirmed structural support (major level from your chart) * **63.87 → 58.43** — Deeper structural cluster * **54.90** — Long-term floor **Upside Levels** * **121.64** — Major resistance * **126.03** — Wave (5) 1.618 extension target As long as price holds **above 58.4**, the long-term bullish structure remains completely intact. The January flush was a **healthy reset within an ongoing bull**, not the end of the move. Silver remains in the early stages of a parabolic expansion… **and the chart now confirms it even more clearly.**

• CSU · Constellation Software
  2026-02-05•Score: 8/10•by @hatedmoats

  The idea of “Hated Moats Portfolio” is as old as this whole newsletter and its point is simple - put our money where our mouth is and buy the companies we analyse and believe in long-term. Initially, I didn’t really want to go into specifics of the portfolio in nominal value, and wanted to tag it as a “virtual portfolio of $X amount of money” and just post it on normalised base. Since we set the transparency to be our main pillar here, we decided to share this portfolio as a real one, and publish its performance in real time, with our real positions we’ve been getting into since July 2025. We increased our actual cash amount assigned to this portfolio to $100,000 and normalised it as a base for the start of Hated Moats, i.e. from July 28, 2025. We model the portfolio against two benchmarks - S&P500 and QQQ (Nasdaq). We compare it as if the whole port of $100,000 was put in each of these indices of July 28, 2025. We believe this is fair, even though the cash drag (we haven’t invested full port of $100k) is against us. But that’s the real life of timing the market and picking individual stocks. :) In Q2, we added 8 new positions into the portfolio: Constellation Software, Salesforce, Duolingo, Meta Platforms, Nebius Group, Uber Technologies, Mo-Bruk and Wix. The position has overall 15 positions by now. We are happy about the new additions, perhaps with a little bit of doubt about Duolingo. All about that and more, including how the portfolio has performed, will be posted in greater detail in our following article, “Portfolios Reveal”.

• CRM · Salesforce
  2026-02-05•Score: 8/10•by @hatedmoats

  The idea of “Hated Moats Portfolio” is as old as this whole newsletter and its point is simple - put our money where our mouth is and buy the companies we analyse and believe in long-term. Initially, I didn’t really want to go into specifics of the portfolio in nominal value, and wanted to tag it as a “virtual portfolio of $X amount of money” and just post it on normalised base. Since we set the transparency to be our main pillar here, we decided to share this portfolio as a real one, and publish its performance in real time, with our real positions we’ve been getting into since July 2025. We increased our actual cash amount assigned to this portfolio to $100,000 and normalised it as a base for the start of Hated Moats, i.e. from July 28, 2025. We model the portfolio against two benchmarks - S&P500 and QQQ (Nasdaq). We compare it as if the whole port of $100,000 was put in each of these indices of July 28, 2025. We believe this is fair, even though the cash drag (we haven’t invested full port of $100k) is against us. But that’s the real life of timing the market and picking individual stocks. :) In Q2, we added 8 new positions into the portfolio: Constellation Software, Salesforce, Duolingo, Meta Platforms, Nebius Group, Uber Technologies, Mo-Bruk and Wix. The position has overall 15 positions by now. We are happy about the new additions, perhaps with a little bit of doubt about Duolingo. All about that and more, including how the portfolio has performed, will be posted in greater detail in our following article, “Portfolios Reveal”.

• SILVER · Silver Commodity/Asset Class
  2026-02-05•Score: 10/10•by @greyrabbitfinance

  Silver enters 2026 with the strongest structural foundation in decades. Five consecutive years of global supply deficits, surging industrial demand, and tightening inventories have pushed the market **full steam ahead into scarcity**. Solar alone now consumes **more silver than global mines produce**. India is preparing to re-monetize silver. Samsung’s solid-state battery breakthrough requires **~1kg of silver per cell**. And corporations are quietly locking in long-term supply before the shortage becomes public. Meanwhile retail remains absent: * ETF flows flat * Futures positioning muted * Western portfolios barely exposed This is not a hype cycle. This is a **parabolic setup** built on physical constraints… _before_ the crowd arrives. Our analysis shows the same structure repeating across all anchor timeframes:**acceleration, thin clouds, vertical Tenkan, steep Kijun, and multiple price-time convergence zones into 2026.** > And the final confirmation? > > The **gold-to-silver ratio is breaking down**… historically the trigger for every major silver outperformance cycle. When structural deficits meet monetary easing and the GSR rolls over, price doesn’t trend…**it revalues parabolically.** ... Across all high timeframes, Silver’s structure is identical to every prior pre-parabolic setup. Silver has now transitioned from expansion to acceleration… the phase where parabolic curvature begins. The trigger? **A +315% nine-month run**, historically marking the exact point where: * buying accelerates * pullbacks shorten * volatility compresses * monthly candles expand This occurred in: * 1979 * 2004–2011 * 2020 * and now again in **2025** Across the 3M, 1M, and 1W charts, Ichimoku confirms: * **Chikou in free air** * **Razor-thin forward cloud** * **Steepening Kijun** * **Vertical Tenkan** * **Higher lows forming faster** This is not a blow-off top. This is the ignition phase of a parabola.

• DUOL · Duolingo
  2026-02-05•Score: 7/10•by @hatedmoats

  The idea of “Hated Moats Portfolio” is as old as this whole newsletter and its point is simple - put our money where our mouth is and buy the companies we analyse and believe in long-term. Initially, I didn’t really want to go into specifics of the portfolio in nominal value, and wanted to tag it as a “virtual portfolio of $X amount of money” and just post it on normalised base. Since we set the transparency to be our main pillar here, we decided to share this portfolio as a real one, and publish its performance in real time, with our real positions we’ve been getting into since July 2025. We increased our actual cash amount assigned to this portfolio to $100,000 and normalised it as a base for the start of Hated Moats, i.e. from July 28, 2025. We model the portfolio against two benchmarks - S&P500 and QQQ (Nasdaq). We compare it as if the whole port of $100,000 was put in each of these indices of July 28, 2025. We believe this is fair, even though the cash drag (we haven’t invested full port of $100k) is against us. But that’s the real life of timing the market and picking individual stocks. :) In Q2, we added 8 new positions into the portfolio: Constellation Software, Salesforce, Duolingo, Meta Platforms, Nebius Group, Uber Technologies, Mo-Bruk and Wix. The position has overall 15 positions by now. We are happy about the new additions, perhaps with a little bit of doubt about Duolingo. All about that and more, including how the portfolio has performed, will be posted in greater detail in our following article, “Portfolios Reveal”.

• META · Meta Platforms
  2026-02-05•Score: 8/10•by @hatedmoats

  The idea of “Hated Moats Portfolio” is as old as this whole newsletter and its point is simple - put our money where our mouth is and buy the companies we analyse and believe in long-term. Initially, I didn’t really want to go into specifics of the portfolio in nominal value, and wanted to tag it as a “virtual portfolio of $X amount of money” and just post it on normalised base. Since we set the transparency to be our main pillar here, we decided to share this portfolio as a real one, and publish its performance in real time, with our real positions we’ve been getting into since July 2025. We increased our actual cash amount assigned to this portfolio to $100,000 and normalised it as a base for the start of Hated Moats, i.e. from July 28, 2025. We model the portfolio against two benchmarks - S&P500 and QQQ (Nasdaq). We compare it as if the whole port of $100,000 was put in each of these indices of July 28, 2025. We believe this is fair, even though the cash drag (we haven’t invested full port of $100k) is against us. But that’s the real life of timing the market and picking individual stocks. :) In Q2, we added 8 new positions into the portfolio: Constellation Software, Salesforce, Duolingo, Meta Platforms, Nebius Group, Uber Technologies, Mo-Bruk and Wix. The position has overall 15 positions by now. We are happy about the new additions, perhaps with a little bit of doubt about Duolingo. All about that and more, including how the portfolio has performed, will be posted in greater detail in our following article, “Portfolios Reveal”.

• Nebius Group · Nebius Group
  2026-02-05•Score: 8/10•by @hatedmoats

  The idea of “Hated Moats Portfolio” is as old as this whole newsletter and its point is simple - put our money where our mouth is and buy the companies we analyse and believe in long-term. Initially, I didn’t really want to go into specifics of the portfolio in nominal value, and wanted to tag it as a “virtual portfolio of $X amount of money” and just post it on normalised base. Since we set the transparency to be our main pillar here, we decided to share this portfolio as a real one, and publish its performance in real time, with our real positions we’ve been getting into since July 2025. We increased our actual cash amount assigned to this portfolio to $100,000 and normalised it as a base for the start of Hated Moats, i.e. from July 28, 2025. We model the portfolio against two benchmarks - S&P500 and QQQ (Nasdaq). We compare it as if the whole port of $100,000 was put in each of these indices of July 28, 2025. We believe this is fair, even though the cash drag (we haven’t invested full port of $100k) is against us. But that’s the real life of timing the market and picking individual stocks. :) In Q2, we added 8 new positions into the portfolio: Constellation Software, Salesforce, Duolingo, Meta Platforms, Nebius Group, Uber Technologies, Mo-Bruk and Wix. The position has overall 15 positions by now. We are happy about the new additions, perhaps with a little bit of doubt about Duolingo. All about that and more, including how the portfolio has performed, will be posted in greater detail in our following article, “Portfolios Reveal”.

• UBER · Uber Technologies
  2026-02-05•Score: 8/10•by @hatedmoats

  The idea of “Hated Moats Portfolio” is as old as this whole newsletter and its point is simple - put our money where our mouth is and buy the companies we analyse and believe in long-term. Initially, I didn’t really want to go into specifics of the portfolio in nominal value, and wanted to tag it as a “virtual portfolio of $X amount of money” and just post it on normalised base. Since we set the transparency to be our main pillar here, we decided to share this portfolio as a real one, and publish its performance in real time, with our real positions we’ve been getting into since July 2025. We increased our actual cash amount assigned to this portfolio to $100,000 and normalised it as a base for the start of Hated Moats, i.e. from July 28, 2025. We model the portfolio against two benchmarks - S&P500 and QQQ (Nasdaq). We compare it as if the whole port of $100,000 was put in each of these indices of July 28, 2025. We believe this is fair, even though the cash drag (we haven’t invested full port of $100k) is against us. But that’s the real life of timing the market and picking individual stocks. :) In Q2, we added 8 new positions into the portfolio: Constellation Software, Salesforce, Duolingo, Meta Platforms, Nebius Group, Uber Technologies, Mo-Bruk and Wix. The position has overall 15 positions by now. We are happy about the new additions, perhaps with a little bit of doubt about Duolingo. All about that and more, including how the portfolio has performed, will be posted in greater detail in our following article, “Portfolios Reveal”.

• Mo-Bruk · Mo-Bruk
  2026-02-05•Score: 8/10•by @hatedmoats

  The idea of “Hated Moats Portfolio” is as old as this whole newsletter and its point is simple - put our money where our mouth is and buy the companies we analyse and believe in long-term. Initially, I didn’t really want to go into specifics of the portfolio in nominal value, and wanted to tag it as a “virtual portfolio of $X amount of money” and just post it on normalised base. Since we set the transparency to be our main pillar here, we decided to share this portfolio as a real one, and publish its performance in real time, with our real positions we’ve been getting into since July 2025. We increased our actual cash amount assigned to this portfolio to $100,000 and normalised it as a base for the start of Hated Moats, i.e. from July 28, 2025. We model the portfolio against two benchmarks - S&P500 and QQQ (Nasdaq). We compare it as if the whole port of $100,000 was put in each of these indices of July 28, 2025. We believe this is fair, even though the cash drag (we haven’t invested full port of $100k) is against us. But that’s the real life of timing the market and picking individual stocks. :) In Q2, we added 8 new positions into the portfolio: Constellation Software, Salesforce, Duolingo, Meta Platforms, Nebius Group, Uber Technologies, Mo-Bruk and Wix. The position has overall 15 positions by now. We are happy about the new additions, perhaps with a little bit of doubt about Duolingo. All about that and more, including how the portfolio has performed, will be posted in greater detail in our following article, “Portfolios Reveal”.

• WIX · Wix
  2026-02-05•Score: 8/10•by @hatedmoats

  The idea of “Hated Moats Portfolio” is as old as this whole newsletter and its point is simple - put our money where our mouth is and buy the companies we analyse and believe in long-term. Initially, I didn’t really want to go into specifics of the portfolio in nominal value, and wanted to tag it as a “virtual portfolio of $X amount of money” and just post it on normalised base. Since we set the transparency to be our main pillar here, we decided to share this portfolio as a real one, and publish its performance in real time, with our real positions we’ve been getting into since July 2025. We increased our actual cash amount assigned to this portfolio to $100,000 and normalised it as a base for the start of Hated Moats, i.e. from July 28, 2025. We model the portfolio against two benchmarks - S&P500 and QQQ (Nasdaq). We compare it as if the whole port of $100,000 was put in each of these indices of July 28, 2025. We believe this is fair, even though the cash drag (we haven’t invested full port of $100k) is against us. But that’s the real life of timing the market and picking individual stocks. :) In Q2, we added 8 new positions into the portfolio: Constellation Software, Salesforce, Duolingo, Meta Platforms, Nebius Group, Uber Technologies, Mo-Bruk and Wix. The position has overall 15 positions by now. We are happy about the new additions, perhaps with a little bit of doubt about Duolingo. All about that and more, including how the portfolio has performed, will be posted in greater detail in our following article, “Portfolios Reveal”.

• WIX · Wix.com Ltd.
  2026-02-05•Score: 10/10•by @hatedmoats

  * **Date of Analysis:** January 29-30, 2026 * **Verdict:** Deeply Undervalued * **Current Price Target (Base Case):** $145 * **Price at the Time of Analysing:** $86.84 Wix.com Ltd. ( [WIX -3.13%↓](https://substack.com/discover/stocks/WIX) ) enters 2026 at a genuine inflection point. The stock’s ~50% drawdown through 2025 reflects a single dominant fear. The “Chegg Outcome”, where open-ended LLMs commoditise incumbent software and users bypass the UI entirely. On that framing, a website builder becomes an anachronism, and the equity deserves a permanently lower multiple. Our view is that this fear is reductive. Wix is'n’t positioning itself as “a website builder” anymore. The strategic pivot is toward becoming an AI operating system for web and app creation, anchored by the Base44 acquisition (natural-language full-stack “vibe coding”) and the launch of Wix Harmony (AI-assisted onboarding and creation). Base44 is the key chess move here. It captures a large, fast-growing “prosumer” cohort that is beyond drag-and-drop, yet not a traditional developer. In other words, Wix is attempting to sit exactly where the value migrates, i.e. between raw LLM capability and a production-grade, deployable web/app output that SMBs can actually run, monetise, and manage. Two catalysts reinforce the asymmetry. First, Base44 exited 2025 with approximately $50M ARR run-rate per management and had user growth scaling rapidly, giving Wix a credible third pillar beyond subscriptions and payments. Second, the $2B buyback authorisation announced January 28, 2026 is unusually aggressive relative to Wix’s market cap. By all means, this is not a routine, maintenance repurchase. It reads as management’s own statement that the market is materially mispricing the future cash-generation capacity of the business, at exactly the moment when the narrative has turned most pessimistic. ... Margin of Safety = 1 – (Current Price / Intrinsic Value) Margin of Safety = 1 – ($86.84 / $145) = 40.1% A 40% margin of safety places Wix in the undervalued bucket, on the verge of deeply undervalued, where the stock gets at the price of <$85 per share (i.e., currently >20% MoS for undervalued threshold &>40% for deeply undervalued). Put differently, the market price is discounting either a materially higher risk premium than our 10% WACC, structurally weaker long-run margins, and/or a post-2035 decline profile that is inconsistent with our base-case durability assumptions. Under our base case, Wix’s value proposition is not “a legacy website builder,” but an increasingly integrated subscription and transaction platform with AI-driven retention and ARPU tailwinds (Base44 as a significant upside optionality). Scenario framing reinforces the asymmetry: bear $61/share, base $145/share, bull $211/share. The current price ($86.84) implies a meaningfully more pessimistic steady-state than our normalised base.

• CSU · Constellation Software Inc.
  2026-02-05•Score: 10/10•by @hatedmoats

  Let’s dive into valuation of Constellation Software: * **Date of Analysis:** January 16-23, 2026 * **Verdict:** Undervalued * **Current Price Target (Base Case):** C$3,642 * **Price at the Time of Analysing:** C$2,713 - C$2,781.11 ... **Outcome (Base Case C$3,643/share):** As modelled above (WACC 6.2%, terminal g 3.0%, incremental ROIC = 18%). This is our core assumption set. CSU remains a high-quality acquirer, but growth naturally moderates with scale. The terminal growth rate converges toward long-run nominal growth and the discount rate reflects CSU’s relatively low beta and resilient cash generation. Outcome: This results in over +30% upside to the current price of C$2,781.11. ... Margin of Safety = 1 – (Current Price / Intrinsic Value) Margin of Safety = 1 – (C$2,781.11/ C$3,643) = 23.365% (rounded to 23.7%) On our defined scale, a 23.7% margin of safety places CSU in the undervalued category. ... At C$2,713, CSU is priced as if the acquisition engine faces materially more “deployment friction” than our base case, i.e. either a higher required return (WACC), a lower long-run growth runway, or modestly weaker incremental ROIC. Our model explicitly charges acquisition reinvestment (so we are not getting acquired cash flows “for free”), yet the implied value still sits meaningfully above the market price. That is the key point here. Even after paying for growth, CSU screens attractive. The risk is not near-term earnings volatility but rather the capital allocation economics at scale. The question is whether CSU can continue compounding at high incremental returns as the base grows. As it stands, we view CSU as a rare case of a durable compounding machine trading at a real, model-supported discount rather than at a perfection premium.

• CSU.TO · Constellation Software
  2026-02-05•Score: 8/10•by @hatedmoats

  The idea of “Hated Moats Portfolio” is as old as this whole newsletter and its point is simple - put our money where our mouth is and buy the companies we analyse and believe in long-term. Initially, I didn’t really want to go into specifics of the portfolio in nominal value, and wanted to tag it as a “virtual portfolio of $X amount of money” and just post it on normalised base. Since we set the transparency to be our main pillar here, we decided to share this portfolio as a real one, and publish its performance in real time, with our real positions we’ve been getting into since July 2025. We increased our actual cash amount assigned to this portfolio to $100,000 and normalised it as a base for the start of Hated Moats, i.e. from July 28, 2025. In Q2, we added 8 new positions into the portfolio: Constellation Software, Salesforce, Duolingo, Meta Platforms, Nebius Group, Uber Technologies, Mo-Bruk and Wix. The position has overall 15 positions by now. We are happy about the new additions, perhaps with a little bit of doubt about Duolingo.

• CRM · Salesforce
  2026-02-05•Score: 8/10•by @hatedmoats

  The idea of “Hated Moats Portfolio” is as old as this whole newsletter and its point is simple - put our money where our mouth is and buy the companies we analyse and believe in long-term. Initially, I didn’t really want to go into specifics of the portfolio in nominal value, and wanted to tag it as a “virtual portfolio of $X amount of money” and just post it on normalised base. Since we set the transparency to be our main pillar here, we decided to share this portfolio as a real one, and publish its performance in real time, with our real positions we’ve been getting into since July 2025. We increased our actual cash amount assigned to this portfolio to $100,000 and normalised it as a base for the start of Hated Moats, i.e. from July 28, 2025. In Q2, we added 8 new positions into the portfolio: Constellation Software, Salesforce, Duolingo, Meta Platforms, Nebius Group, Uber Technologies, Mo-Bruk and Wix. The position has overall 15 positions by now. We are happy about the new additions, perhaps with a little bit of doubt about Duolingo.

• DUOL · Duolingo
  2026-02-05•Score: 8/10•by @hatedmoats

  The idea of “Hated Moats Portfolio” is as old as this whole newsletter and its point is simple - put our money where our mouth is and buy the companies we analyse and believe in long-term. Initially, I didn’t really want to go into specifics of the portfolio in nominal value, and wanted to tag it as a “virtual portfolio of $X amount of money” and just post it on normalised base. Since we set the transparency to be our main pillar here, we decided to share this portfolio as a real one, and publish its performance in real time, with our real positions we’ve been getting into since July 2025. We increased our actual cash amount assigned to this portfolio to $100,000 and normalised it as a base for the start of Hated Moats, i.e. from July 28, 2025. In Q2, we added 8 new positions into the portfolio: Constellation Software, Salesforce, Duolingo, Meta Platforms, Nebius Group, Uber Technologies, Mo-Bruk and Wix. The position has overall 15 positions by now. We are happy about the new additions, perhaps with a little bit of doubt about Duolingo.

• META · Meta Platforms
  2026-02-05•Score: 8/10•by @hatedmoats

  The idea of “Hated Moats Portfolio” is as old as this whole newsletter and its point is simple - put our money where our mouth is and buy the companies we analyse and believe in long-term. Initially, I didn’t really want to go into specifics of the portfolio in nominal value, and wanted to tag it as a “virtual portfolio of $X amount of money” and just post it on normalised base. Since we set the transparency to be our main pillar here, we decided to share this portfolio as a real one, and publish its performance in real time, with our real positions we’ve been getting into since July 2025. We increased our actual cash amount assigned to this portfolio to $100,000 and normalised it as a base for the start of Hated Moats, i.e. from July 28, 2025. In Q2, we added 8 new positions into the portfolio: Constellation Software, Salesforce, Duolingo, Meta Platforms, Nebius Group, Uber Technologies, Mo-Bruk and Wix. The position has overall 15 positions by now. We are happy about the new additions, perhaps with a little bit of doubt about Duolingo.

• ??? · Nebius Group
  2026-02-05•Score: 8/10•by @hatedmoats

  The idea of “Hated Moats Portfolio” is as old as this whole newsletter and its point is simple - put our money where our mouth is and buy the companies we analyse and believe in long-term. Initially, I didn’t really want to go into specifics of the portfolio in nominal value, and wanted to tag it as a “virtual portfolio of $X amount of money” and just post it on normalised base. Since we set the transparency to be our main pillar here, we decided to share this portfolio as a real one, and publish its performance in real time, with our real positions we’ve been getting into since July 2025. We increased our actual cash amount assigned to this portfolio to $100,000 and normalised it as a base for the start of Hated Moats, i.e. from July 28, 2025. In Q2, we added 8 new positions into the portfolio: Constellation Software, Salesforce, Duolingo, Meta Platforms, Nebius Group, Uber Technologies, Mo-Bruk and Wix. The position has overall 15 positions by now. We are happy about the new additions, perhaps with a little bit of doubt about Duolingo.

• UBER · Uber Technologies
  2026-02-05•Score: 8/10•by @hatedmoats

  The idea of “Hated Moats Portfolio” is as old as this whole newsletter and its point is simple - put our money where our mouth is and buy the companies we analyse and believe in long-term. Initially, I didn’t really want to go into specifics of the portfolio in nominal value, and wanted to tag it as a “virtual portfolio of $X amount of money” and just post it on normalised base. Since we set the transparency to be our main pillar here, we decided to share this portfolio as a real one, and publish its performance in real time, with our real positions we’ve been getting into since July 2025. We increased our actual cash amount assigned to this portfolio to $100,000 and normalised it as a base for the start of Hated Moats, i.e. from July 28, 2025. In Q2, we added 8 new positions into the portfolio: Constellation Software, Salesforce, Duolingo, Meta Platforms, Nebius Group, Uber Technologies, Mo-Bruk and Wix. The position has overall 15 positions by now. We are happy about the new additions, perhaps with a little bit of doubt about Duolingo.

• ??? · Mo-Bruk
  2026-02-05•Score: 8/10•by @hatedmoats

  The idea of “Hated Moats Portfolio” is as old as this whole newsletter and its point is simple - put our money where our mouth is and buy the companies we analyse and believe in long-term. Initially, I didn’t really want to go into specifics of the portfolio in nominal value, and wanted to tag it as a “virtual portfolio of $X amount of money” and just post it on normalised base. Since we set the transparency to be our main pillar here, we decided to share this portfolio as a real one, and publish its performance in real time, with our real positions we’ve been getting into since July 2025. We increased our actual cash amount assigned to this portfolio to $100,000 and normalised it as a base for the start of Hated Moats, i.e. from July 28, 2025. In Q2, we added 8 new positions into the portfolio: Constellation Software, Salesforce, Duolingo, Meta Platforms, Nebius Group, Uber Technologies, Mo-Bruk and Wix. The position has overall 15 positions by now. We are happy about the new additions, perhaps with a little bit of doubt about Duolingo.

• WIX · Wix
  2026-02-05•Score: 8/10•by @hatedmoats

  The idea of “Hated Moats Portfolio” is as old as this whole newsletter and its point is simple - put our money where our mouth is and buy the companies we analyse and believe in long-term. Initially, I didn’t really want to go into specifics of the portfolio in nominal value, and wanted to tag it as a “virtual portfolio of $X amount of money” and just post it on normalised base. Since we set the transparency to be our main pillar here, we decided to share this portfolio as a real one, and publish its performance in real time, with our real positions we’ve been getting into since July 2025. We increased our actual cash amount assigned to this portfolio to $100,000 and normalised it as a base for the start of Hated Moats, i.e. from July 28, 2025. In Q2, we added 8 new positions into the portfolio: Constellation Software, Salesforce, Duolingo, Meta Platforms, Nebius Group, Uber Technologies, Mo-Bruk and Wix. The position has overall 15 positions by now. We are happy about the new additions, perhaps with a little bit of doubt about Duolingo.

• CSU · Constellation Software Inc.
  2026-02-05•Score: 10/10•by @hatedmoats

  Let’s dive into valuation of Constellation Software: * **Date of Analysis:** January 16-23, 2026 * **Verdict:** Undervalued * **Current Price Target (Base Case):** C$3,642 * **Price at the Time of Analysing:** C$2,713 - C$2,781.11 As modelled above (WACC 6.2%, terminal g 3.0%, incremental ROIC = 18%). This is our core assumption set. CSU remains a high-quality acquirer, but growth naturally moderates with scale. The terminal growth rate converges toward long-run nominal growth and the discount rate reflects CSU’s relatively low beta and resilient cash generation. Outcome: Implied Value (Base Case): C$3,643/share This results in over +30% upside to the current price of C$2,781.11. Margin of Safety = 1 – (Current Price / Intrinsic Value) Margin of Safety = 1 – (C$2,781.11/ C$3,643) = 23.365% (rounded to 23.7%) On our defined scale, a 23.7% margin of safety places CSU in the undervalued category. At C$2,713, CSU is priced as if the acquisition engine faces materially more “deployment friction” than our base case, i.e. either a higher required return (WACC), a lower long-run growth runway, or modestly weaker incremental ROIC. Our model explicitly charges acquisition reinvestment (so we are not getting acquired cash flows “for free”), yet the implied value still sits meaningfully above the market price. That is the key point here. Even after paying for growth, CSU screens attractive. The risk is not near-term earnings volatility but rather the capital allocation economics at scale. The question is whether CSU can continue compounding at high incremental returns as the base grows. As it stands, we view CSU as a rare case of a durable compounding machine trading at a real, model-supported discount rather than at a perfection premium.

• AMD · Advanced Micro Devices
  2026-02-05•Score: 10/10•by @mispricedassets

  AMD is sitting around **$260**. The market’s basically saying: “Nice company. Probably grows. Probably not a full-on platform-shift moment.” I think that read is wrong. What’s happening here isn’t a normal semiconductor cycle. It’s a structural breakdown of the x86 duopoly that defined enterprise computing for three decades — and **AMD is the only company executing cleanly into the exact window that matters**. The combo matters: * contracted demand * rack-scale productization * China policy loosening (at the margin) * CPU pricing power * Intel’s execution gap Put those together and you don’t get “a good semi.” You get **earnings power that steps up structurally** — meaningfully above what the Street is currently willing to underwrite. GF Securities raised their target to **$308**, citing CPU price increases and AI tailwinds. That’s a start. But if AMD’s earnings power steps up the way the current buildout and supply chain signals suggest, **$500 is arithmetic, not aspiration.** And $700 is what happens when the Street finally models the order book after it becomes painfully obvious. Before we model forward, anchor on what the market is actually paying for. **Current valuation snapshot:** * **Stock price:** ~$260 * **Forward P/E:** ~41x (buyside probably thinks it’s ~35x) * **TTM P/E:** ~128x (not useful in a ramp; earnings are inflecting) * **Street “anchor” forward EPS:****~$6.50–$7.00** That EPS anchor is the whole game. This thesis works if: 1. EPS power moves into a higher band, and 2. the multiple doesn’t collapse while the fundamentals are ripping. This isn’t just “AMD is doing well.” This is “the x86 duopoly is breaking down, and AMD is the only one left with a functional near-term roadmap.” Intel disclosed **$11.6B** in inventory coming out of 2025 and described it as not positioned correctly. That number alone tells you a lot about the competitive dynamic, because it’s rarely “inventory is high” — it’s usually: > **inventory is high and it’s the wrong stuff.** When customers want efficient, high-core-count server CPUs for AI head-nodes and you can’t deliver enough of the high-performing bins, you end up accumulating lower-bin parts you can build… but can’t sell. That tends to trigger a nasty feedback loop: * **The Yield Trap:** If your yields aren’t where you need them, you pile up unsellable mix. * **Cash / Working Capital Drag:** Inventory eats flexibility and makes everything harder, including R&D allocation. * **Roadmap Pressure:** “Next node fixes it” becomes the narrative — until the next node slips too. The key point isn’t “Intel can never recover.” The point is: **the next 18–24 months are the window that matters**, and that’s exactly when AI infrastructure capex is accelerating. If Intel can’t meet the specific performance, power, and volume requirements on schedule, customers don’t wait. They re-source. And in x86 servers, the re-source option is AMD. Hyperscalers (Microsoft, Google, Meta, AWS) have multi-year build plans. These cannot be paused. If a vendor can’t ship on the schedule the datacenter needs, customers don’t say “okay, we’ll wait.” They say: **who can ship?** That’s the structural edge here: supply elasticity is low and demand is inelastic. This is the environment where pricing power appears — not because the company is “greedy,” but because the customer needs throughput more than they need a discount. If AMD is close to sold out on key server SKUs into 2026, then the 70% share outcome isn’t an aspirational slide. It’s what happens when your competitor can’t reliably deliver. This is the underappreciated killer: logistics and flexibility. AMD’s chiplet approach (compute + I/O separated, stitched together with Infinity Fabric) isn’t a marketing term. It’s an operational weapon. It enables **silicon fungibility**: you can reallocate capacity toward the highest-margin demand pocket more cleanly than a rigid, monolithic product stack. Intel has done impressive packaging work (multi-tile, EMIB, Foveros, etc.) — but complexity is also where yields and timelines go to die. And when you layer on real internal supply tradeoffs across segments, allocation constraints become visible. Translation: * AMD can shift mix like a software company reallocating servers. * Intel often has to shift mix like a cruise ship doing a three-point turn. In an AI buildout, the winner is whoever can say: **“Yep, we can ship six months sooner, and yes, we can scale it.”** What’s been widely reported and discussed about Venice: * extreme core scaling * expected to be on a leading TSMC node (often discussed as N2-class) * packaging/topology evolution to support bandwidth and connectivity When I say “checkmate,” I’m not saying Intel can’t make a good CPU. I’m saying: AMD is stacking: * more cores * more bandwidth/connectivity * on a leading foundry node * in an architecture that scales cleanly That’s what turns “AMD is competitive” into “AMD is default.”

• SALT · Atlas Salt Inc.
  2026-02-05•Score: 10/10•by @juniorminingpro

  **Atlas Salt Inc.** **TSXV: SALT | OTCQX: REMRF** _Transitioning Canada’s largest undeveloped salt project from permits to production_ Market cap: ~$93 million CAD The North American industrial salt shortage is real. Atlas Salt controls the Great Atlantic Salt Project in Newfoundland. A shovel-ready 10 billion tonne resource targeting 2030 first production and an update FS mine-life of 24 years. With early works approved, Hatch Ltd. signed as lead engineering partner, and recent OTCQX uplisting, the company has de-risked execution significantly. The $350-400M debt financing in the works with Endeavour Financial positions this as a near-term producer in a $36B global market. Management just brought in mine-builder Nolan Peterson as CEO: the same caliber of operator who delivered New Afton, Rainy River, and Hope Bay. Watch for construction commencement and offtake agreements as key catalysts through 2026.

• KLDC · Kirkland Lake Discoveries Corp.
  2026-02-05•Score: 10/10•by @juniorminingpro

  **Kirkland Lake Discoveries Corp.** **TSXV: KLDC | OTC: KLKLF** _40,000-hectare land consolidation in Ontario’s legendary Kirkland Lake gold camp with drills turning_ Market cap: ~$40 million CAD KLDC recently raised an oversubscribed $12.72 million private placement led by mining finance legends Eric Sprott and Rob McEwen, and commenced their fully-funded 25,000m drill program on November 21st. The company confirmed dual mineralizing systems across their district-scale (40,000 hectares) land package located in the heart of the Kirkland Lake gold camp: a copper-rich massive sulphide (CRMS) system and an intrusion-related gold system (IRGS), significantly enhancing discovery potential in geology that created giants like Horne (53.7Mt), LaRonde (18.9Mt), and Sigma-Lamaque (35.6Mt). Management strengthened the technical team with VP Exploration Ben Cleland and Technical Adviser Dr. Jean-Francois Montreuil, with a second rig planned for January 2026. At $40.3M market cap for prime Abitibi real estate with institutional backing and drills turning, this is positioned for significant newsflow through 2026.

• KCLI · American Critical Minerals Corp.
  2026-02-05•Score: 10/10•by @juniorminingpro

  **American Critical Minerals Corp.** **TSXV: KCLI | OTC: [not yet listed]** _Triple critical mineral exposure in Utah’s proven Paradox Basin with Q1 2026 drilling_ Market cap: ~$19.5 million CAD America imports over 90% of their potash from Canada. The company targets large scale, high grade potash, lithium AND bromine from the same brine system in Utah’s Paradox Basin, with three drill holes fully permitted and bonded on SITLA leases, plus four authorized holes on BLM leases awaiting final bonding. KCLI recently raised oversubscribed $7.451 million in institutional-led financings and has a board of directors stacked with veteran talent in developing and managing brine deposits: Dean Pekeski with 33 years mining sector experience including 17+ years potash focus, who led Western Potash’s Milestone project and serves as CEO of Peak Minerals developing Utah’s Sevier Playa SOP project; and Kenneth Taylor, an expert in salt minerals and evaporite deposits; was with Intrepid Potash Inc. for 12 years including as part of senior management, latterly as vice-president of business development. The upcoming maiden drill program is designed to validate historic data and position for maiden resource estimates and PFS/PEA across all three critical minerals. With Q1 2026 mobilization targeted, this offers early-stage exposure to domestic supply chain independence in a district validated by neighbor Anson Resources’ 1.5M tonne lithium resource (and advanced DLE pilots being funded by South Korean giant POSCO) and Intrepid Potash’s legacy potash mine, 20 miles away, with 50+ years of production.

• STMN · UraniumX Discovery Corp. (formerly Stearman Resources)
  2026-02-05•Score: 10/10•by @juniorminingpro

  **UraniumX Discovery Corp. (formerly Stearman Resources)** **CSE: STMN** _33,000 hectares in the Athabasca Basin with the world’s most accomplished uranium discovery team_ Market cap: $15 million CAD A Uranium Dream Team with a robust treasury and an exceptional asset base. After recently raising $4.1 million, UraniumX has just announced _another_ $1.5 million private placement due to institutional demand, positioning the company with robust war chest to commence ambitious exploration campaigns focused on drilling Murphy Lake this Spring. Murphy Lake sits just 3km from IsoEnergy’s world-class Hurricane discovery - the highest grade uranium discovery in the world; 15km north of the Nova discovery, and 4km east of Cameco’s La Rocque Lake. The board is stacked with technical talent - unrivalled in the Athabasca Basin : Ken Wheatley (Exploration Director, 8 Athabasca discoveries including McArthur River and Cigar Lake), Dr. Yuanming Pan (Technical Advisor, leading academic authority on Athabasca unconformity systems), Matthew Schwab (Director, Arrow discovery team, Roughrider sale for $654M), and Vincent Martin (Strategic Advisor, former Orano Canada CEO with 37 years global uranium operations). At $0.22/share after 45 days of consolidation with this caliber of team directing systematic expansion drilling across 33,000 hectares, and a robust cash position, this represents my highest conviction uranium play heading into Spring 2026 catalysts.

• AMD · Advanced Micro Devices
  2026-02-05•Score: 10/10•by @mispricedassets

  AMD is sitting around **$260**. The market’s basically saying: “Nice company. Probably grows. Probably not a full-on platform-shift moment.” I think that read is wrong. What’s happening here isn’t a normal semiconductor cycle. It’s a structural breakdown of the x86 duopoly that defined enterprise computing for three decades — and **AMD is the only company executing cleanly into the exact window that matters**. Put those together and you don’t get “a good semi.” You get **earnings power that steps up structurally** — meaningfully above what the Street is currently willing to underwrite. GF Securities raised their target to **$308**, citing CPU price increases and AI tailwinds. That’s a start. But if AMD’s earnings power steps up the way the current buildout and supply chain signals suggest, **$500 is arithmetic, not aspiration.** And $700 is what happens when the Street finally models the order book after it becomes painfully obvious. Before we model forward, anchor on what the market is actually paying for. **Current valuation snapshot:** * **Stock price:** ~$260 * **Forward P/E:** ~41x (buyside probably thinks it’s ~35x) * **TTM P/E:** ~128x (not useful in a ramp; earnings are inflecting) * **Street “anchor” forward EPS:****~$6.50–$7.00** That EPS anchor is the whole game. This thesis works if: 1. EPS power moves into a higher band, and 2. the multiple doesn’t collapse while the fundamentals are ripping. This isn’t just “AMD is doing well.” This is “the x86 duopoly is breaking down, and AMD is the only one left with a functional near-term roadmap.” The key point isn’t “Intel can never recover.” The point is: **the next 18–24 months are the window that matters**, and that’s exactly when AI infrastructure capex is accelerating. If Intel can’t meet the specific performance, power, and volume requirements on schedule, customers don’t wait. They re-source. And in x86 servers, the re-source option is AMD. That’s the structural edge here: supply elasticity is low and demand is inelastic. This is the environment where pricing power appears — not because the company is “greedy,” but because the customer needs throughput more than they need a discount. If AMD is close to sold out on key server SKUs into 2026, then the 70% share outcome isn’t an aspirational slide. It’s what happens when your competitor can’t reliably deliver. AMD’s chiplet approach (compute + I/O separated, stitched together with Infinity Fabric) isn’t a marketing term. It’s an operational weapon.

• FOMO · Formation Metals Inc.
  2026-02-05•Score: 10/10•by @juniorminingpro

  **Formation Metals Inc.** **TSXV: FOMO | OTCQB: FOMTF** _30,000m drill program expanding 871,000 oz historical resource in the Abitibi_ Market cap: $38 million CAD Shares of FOMO took a hit with the rest of the gold market on Friday, however the thesis remains stronger than every. FOMO acquired a 4,400-hectare Abitibi gold project with an 871,000 oz historical resource during the 2024 bear market. With gold recently skyrocketing past $5,000, the entire story must be re-rated as every ounce in the ground - historical, and those to yet be discovered, are now exponentially more valuable than when the company picked up the asset. Historic work (over 50,000M of drilling) has already outlined ~871,000 oz (non-43-101) across the A, East, RJ‑East and Central zones plus the high‑grade RJ zone, yet only about 35% of the A Zone strike has ever been drilled, _**leaving more than 3.1 km of fully permitted ground in front of the rigs.**_ The company just announced their maiden NI 43-101 resource estimate following Phase 1 completion. With exceptional near-surface hit rates (10 of 13 holes) and six standout holes showing 100+ meter intervals, they are now running TWO drill rigs to accelerate the discovery timeline. With $12.3M in treasury, zero debt, and a fully-funded 30,000m program designed to triple the resource base, management is executing a clear path to modern compliance and potential major producer takeover. In the strongest gold bull market in history, this remains one of 2026’s most mispriced growth plays.

• AUME · Auriginal Mining Corp. (formerly Kintavar Exploration)
  2026-02-05•Score: 10/10•by @juniorminingpro

  **Auriginal Mining Corp. (formerly Kintavar Exploration)** **TSXV: AUME** _Reinterpreting 58,000m of historic drilling with modern VMS techniques in Quebec’s Chibougamau district_ Market cap: ~$21.1 million Following the take over of Auriginal Mining by the Ore Group and veteran mining and exploration operator Stephen Stewart, the rebranding from Kintavar to Auriginal Mining signalled a fundamental shift in this story. CEO Peter Cashin originally drilled AUME’s flagship Roger project in 1985 and built the underground ramp. Now he’s returned, 40 years later, with modern VMS (volcanogenic massive sulfide) techniques to unlock what 1980s operators missed. Peter recently stated in an interview the company believes, based on regional rock value, they could be sitting on up to $2 billion of in situ value. Recent downhole geophysics identified 500 siemens conductors plus graphite mineralization confirming VMS stratigraphy rather than the porphyry model previous operators chased. The company is reinterpreting 58,000 meters of historical drilling that includes intersections of 7.0% zinc, 3.2% copper, 27 g/t gold, and 124 g/t silver. Located in Quebec’s Chibougamau district with geological analogies to Agnico Eagle’s LaRonde mine, Roger sits along a 1.8km strike length with targets positioned 100-300m below previously drilled high-grade zones. With C$8.5M in the treasury funding an ongoing January-February 2026 drill program designed to test the VMS model at depth, backed by Stephen Stewart’s Ore Group, Cashin’s intimate project knowledge creates a compelling rediscovery opportunity the market is currently pricing around C$0.08. Kicker: The company just announced the commencement of diamond drilling at its other asset - the Anik joint venture with gold giant Iamgold, to test new high-priority gold targets. The Anik property in immediately adjacent to the northern boundary of Iamgold’s prolific Nelligan gold project, 40 kilometres southwest of Chapais, Que.

• AAL · Anglo American / De Beers
  2026-02-05•Score: 8/10•by @thisisnotinvestmentadvice

  The obvious parallel today of course is the diamond market. For decades the supply of diamonds has been effectively one of the world’s few real cartels, controlled by De Beers, but this looks increasingly like going the way of pearls. In May last year, De Beers shocked the jewelry world by making its own lab built diamond, selling it for 80% of the price of a mined diamond, at $4200 a carat rather than $6000. Within six months however this had fallen to just $800 a carat, Massie Plant’s pearl necklace took 40 years to drop that much in value. De Beers is trying to keep the distinction between mined and lab grown, as assuredly as jewelers tried to keep the difference between real and cultural pearls, especially as the cost of manufacturer has dropped to $300 a carat from $4000 over the last decade according to Bain & co. Since we originally wrote this post, De Beers, the South African based mining company that has dominated the market for natural diamonds has been put on the market by Anglo American, with Botswana, who own 15% a likely buyer of a larger stake. However, despite a book value of around $5bn, most analysts think that they would be lucky to get half that. Moreover, with revenue down 44% in Q1 and inventory of around $2bn (i.e. unsold stock in a market that doesn’t seem to want the product), Anglo American is looking rather like Morton Plant and his wife’s string of pearls.

• SALT · Atlas Salt Inc.
  2026-02-05•Score: 9/10•by @juniorminingpro

  **Atlas Salt Inc.** **TSXV: SALT | OTCQX: REMRF** _Transitioning Canada’s largest undeveloped salt project from permits to production_ Market cap: ~$93 million CAD The North American industrial salt shortage is real. Atlas Salt controls the Great Atlantic Salt Project in Newfoundland. A shovel-ready 10 billion tonne resource targeting 2030 first production and an update FS mine-life of 24 years. With early works approved, Hatch Ltd. signed as lead engineering partner, and recent OTCQX uplisting, the company has de-risked execution significantly. The $350-400M debt financing in the works with Endeavour Financial positions this as a near-term producer in a $36B global market. Management just brought in mine-builder Nolan Peterson as CEO: the same caliber of operator who delivered New Afton, Rainy River, and Hope Bay. Watch for construction commencement and offtake agreements as key catalysts through 2026.

• KLDC · Kirkland Lake Discoveries Corp.
  2026-02-05•Score: 9/10•by @juniorminingpro

  **Kirkland Lake Discoveries Corp.** **TSXV: KLDC | OTC: KLKLF** _40,000-hectare land consolidation in Ontario’s legendary Kirkland Lake gold camp with drills turning_ Market cap: ~$40 million CAD KLDC recently raised an oversubscribed $12.72 million private placement led by mining finance legends Eric Sprott and Rob McEwen, and commenced their fully-funded 25,000m drill program on November 21st. The company confirmed dual mineralizing systems across their district-scale (40,000 hectares) land package located in the heart of the Kirkland Lake gold camp: a copper-rich massive sulphide (CRMS) system and an intrusion-related gold system (IRGS), significantly enhancing discovery potential in geology that created giants like Horne (53.7Mt), LaRonde (18.9Mt), and Sigma-Lamaque (35.6Mt). Management strengthened the technical team with VP Exploration Ben Cleland and Technical Adviser Dr. Jean-Francois Montreuil, with a second rig planned for January 2026. At $40.3M market cap for prime Abitibi real estate with institutional backing and drills turning, this is positioned for significant newsflow through 2026.

• AMZN · Amazon
  2026-02-05•Score: 9/10•by @thisisnotinvestmentadvice

  As we noted in our note on the Court of King Donald, the EU and the Middle Powers as the new power Bloc for the Globalists will need their own Mag 7 and at the very least to reduce the reliance on the old MAG7. While everyone focuses on the need for Europe to build its own defence capability, the Globalists will be focussing on having its own Amazon, Google, META and Microsoft. They may not succeed straight away, but look for regulatory and other pushback against the US ‘incumbents’ as well as the relentless push by US Private Equity and Private Credit firms. As such, straight line assumptions on growth and market share for the hyper scalers and others need to take account of this new and rapidly changing environment.

• GOOGL · Google (Alphabet)
  2026-02-05•Score: 9/10•by @thisisnotinvestmentadvice

  As we noted in our note on the Court of King Donald, the EU and the Middle Powers as the new power Bloc for the Globalists will need their own Mag 7 and at the very least to reduce the reliance on the old MAG7. While everyone focuses on the need for Europe to build its own defence capability, the Globalists will be focussing on having its own Amazon, Google, META and Microsoft. They may not succeed straight away, but look for regulatory and other pushback against the US ‘incumbents’ as well as the relentless push by US Private Equity and Private Credit firms. As such, straight line assumptions on growth and market share for the hyper scalers and others need to take account of this new and rapidly changing environment.

• KCLI · American Critical Minerals Corp.
  2026-02-05•Score: 9/10•by @juniorminingpro

  **American Critical Minerals Corp.** **TSXV: KCLI | OTC: [not yet listed]** _Triple critical mineral exposure in Utah’s proven Paradox Basin with Q1 2026 drilling_ Market cap: ~$19.5 million CAD America imports over 90% of their potash from Canada. The company targets large scale, high grade potash, lithium AND bromine from the same brine system in Utah’s Paradox Basin, with three drill holes fully permitted and bonded on SITLA leases, plus four authorized holes on BLM leases awaiting final bonding. KCLI recently raised oversubscribed $7.451 million in institutional-led financings and has a board of directors stacked with veteran talent in developing and managing brine deposits: Dean Pekeski with 33 years mining sector experience including 17+ years potash focus, who led Western Potash’s Milestone project and serves as CEO of Peak Minerals developing Utah’s Sevier Playa SOP project; and Kenneth Taylor, an expert in salt minerals and evaporite deposits; was with Intrepid Potash Inc. for 12 years including as part of senior management, latterly as vice-president of business development. The upcoming maiden drill program is designed to validate historic data and position for maiden resource estimates and PFS/PEA across all three critical minerals. With Q1 2026 mobilization targeted, this offers early-stage exposure to domestic supply chain independence in a district validated by neighbor Anson Resources’ 1.5M tonne lithium resource (and advanced DLE pilots being funded by South Korean giant POSCO) and Intrepid Potash’s legacy potash mine, 20 miles away, with 50+ years of production.

• META · Meta Platforms
  2026-02-05•Score: 9/10•by @thisisnotinvestmentadvice

  As we noted in our note on the Court of King Donald, the EU and the Middle Powers as the new power Bloc for the Globalists will need their own Mag 7 and at the very least to reduce the reliance on the old MAG7. While everyone focuses on the need for Europe to build its own defence capability, the Globalists will be focussing on having its own Amazon, Google, META and Microsoft. They may not succeed straight away, but look for regulatory and other pushback against the US ‘incumbents’ as well as the relentless push by US Private Equity and Private Credit firms. As such, straight line assumptions on growth and market share for the hyper scalers and others need to take account of this new and rapidly changing environment.

• STMN · UraniumX Discovery Corp. (formerly Stearman Resources)
  2026-02-05•Score: 10/10•by @juniorminingpro

  **UraniumX Discovery Corp. (formerly Stearman Resources)** **CSE: STMN** _33,000 hectares in the Athabasca Basin with the world’s most accomplished uranium discovery team_ Market cap: $15 million CAD A Uranium Dream Team with a robust treasury and an exceptional asset base. After recently raising $4.1 million, UraniumX has just announced _another_ $1.5 million private placement due to institutional demand, positioning the company with robust war chest to commence ambitious exploration campaigns focused on drilling Murphy Lake this Spring. Murphy Lake sits just 3km from IsoEnergy’s world-class Hurricane discovery - the highest grade uranium discovery in the world; 15km north of the Nova discovery, and 4km east of Cameco’s La Rocque Lake. The board is stacked with technical talent - unrivalled in the Athabasca Basin : Ken Wheatley (Exploration Director, 8 Athabasca discoveries including McArthur River and Cigar Lake), Dr. Yuanming Pan (Technical Advisor, leading academic authority on Athabasca unconformity systems), Matthew Schwab (Director, Arrow discovery team, Roughrider sale for $654M), and Vincent Martin (Strategic Advisor, former Orano Canada CEO with 37 years global uranium operations). At $0.22/share after 45 days of consolidation with this caliber of team directing systematic expansion drilling across 33,000 hectares, and a robust cash position, this represents my highest conviction uranium play heading into Spring 2026 catalysts.